There are rumblings that Democrats are resigned to defeat in November, at least in the presidential race. Joe Biden’s disastrous June 27 debate sparked panic among Democrats, which led to a vast left-wing conspiracy, including megadonors, Hollywood, Barack Obama, ex-Clinton aides, and Hill Democrats plotting to force Biden to step aside. The marquee writers for The New York Times editorial staff also joined the chorus, begging Joe to step down. Biden has defiantly refused, sparking nasty infighting that’s likely to continue gnawing at the heels of the party until election day. That rancor died down on July 13, when Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, tried to assassinate former President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Trump missed death by millimeters, with the bullet grazing his right ear. The image of the former president with a raised fist and bloody face has been iconic; even liberals have had to admit it’s an enduring photograph. It gutted the main attack line against Trump, being that he’s a threat to democracy. It also chilled any further pushes to remove Biden from the Democratic ticket. The failed assassination attempt also had some Democratic strategists coming to the conclusion that this election is over and that all focus should be re-directed toward regaining the House and retaining control of the Senate (via NBC News) [emphasis mine]:
Top Democratic sources believe that Democrats who had thoughts about challenging President Biden are now standing down "because of this fragile political moment," @CostaReports reports.
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) July 14, 2024
Concerns about Biden's debate performance "faded almost instantly" after the attempted… pic.twitter.com/ZS5NQAjxpi
Not minimizing the seriousness of what happened yesterday, but from a purely political standpoint, one single shot:
— John Ekdahl (@JohnEkdahl) July 14, 2024
- Turned Trump into a bonafide American folk hero
- Neutralized the Replace Biden campaign
- Destroyed the "threat to democracy" talking point Democrats have been… https://t.co/KCZ0iRvfRS
“We’re so beyond f---ed,” one longtime Democratic insider said, noting that the image of Trump thrusting his fist in the air, with blood dramatically smeared across his face, will be indelible.
“The presidential contest ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to give a candid assessment of his own party’s standing less than four months before the election.
“Now it’s time to focus on keeping the Senate and trying to pick up the House,” he said. “The only positive thing to come out of last night for Democrats is we are no longer talking about Joe Biden’s age today.”
[…]
One Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on Capitol Hill said that the physical targeting of Trump robs Biden of his main argument against the former president. Biden, the strategist pointed out, has tried to convince voters that Trump is so extreme that he presents a threat to democracy.
“That message is dead,” the strategist said, after a gunman tried to kill the presumptive nominee of one of the two major parties. The bullet that struck Trump “probably saved Biden’s nomination” by freezing Democratic calls for him to step aside and “doomed his re-election.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, echoed that sentiment.
“I’m very concerned that the net effect of the Republican convention will be neutralizing the core democracy critique of Trump — a felon who fomented a violent insurrection, tried to block the peaceful transfer of power, and said the Constitution may need to be terminated,” he said.
[…]
A Trump spokesperson did not reply to NBC News’ request for comment on whether the campaign views the attempted assassination as an asset on the campaign trail. But Trump used the already-iconic photo of him raising his fist in the air, while surrounded by his protective detail, in a fundraising appeal Sunday. A full-color American flag appears in the background of a black-and-white version of the photo used to pitch for donations. The words “NEVER SURRENDER” are emblazoned across the top of the image.
For one veteran of Democratic congressional campaigns, that picture says it all.
“The clear effect of this assassination attempt is that it officially thrust Donald Trump out of politics and into martyrdom,” this person said. “They’re framing this as an attack on MAGA and not on Trump — even more powerful. This is literally biblical stuff we’re talking about.”
Democrats will “never be able to compete with that level of enthusiasm among base voters,” the person added. “So yeah, we’re even more f---ed with Biden. ... And relying on Trump to be a galvanizing, unifying enemy won’t work as well.”
Oh, man, they're so salty.
The piece is also littered with many consultants who think this event won’t shape the election much. That’s some lofty dreaming. In a base election, the one that’s more energized wins, and the Trump coalition is one of the most efficiently dispersed geographically. In our system, which favors geographic diversity, Trump has the advantage. In a close race, the advantage is Trump. Biden must be polling significantly ahead of Trump in the national polls to get close to a baseline where a path to 270 is even remotely possible. He’s nowhere near that—his team is reportedly giving up on the Sun Belt gains, refocusing their energy on keeping Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Trump is leading in all three states, with Pennsylvania being the most likely to flip. Post-debate polling from Democratic and Republican sources has Trump increasing his lead over Biden in the Keystone State from four to ten points. Biden losing Pennsylvania alone is the ballgame.