Tipsheet

European Union Member States Are 'Yearning for Changes' Ahead of Parliamentary Elections, Poll Shows

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  May 29, 2024 4:30 PM

On Tuesday, the EU-US Forum, which was recently launched to serve as a warning about the woke, liberal policies coming from the European Union, released polling to highlight how dissatisfied voters from five EU member states are with current leadership. The poll was conducted by the Tyson Group, with respondents coming from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal. The poll is timely, as EU parliamentary elections take place next week. 

A memo focuses on issues such as "economic anxiety," which is "driven by cost of living and taxes." In all five countries, a majority listed the cost of living as one of their three most critical issues facing their country. Seventy-five percent of Portuguese respondents listed it as one of the three most critical issues, while 65 percent said so in France, 61 percent said so in the Netherlands, 57 percent said so in Germany, and 55 percent said so in Italy.

In Portugal, France, Germany, and Italy, the cost of living and economic situation/employment is identified as the most important issue facing the country. In Netherlands, that top issue is migration, which speaks to another kind of crisis in the EU. 

"The significant focus on the cost of living and economic situation/unemployment in each country indicates a common struggle with inflation and its effects on daily life. Citizens are feeling the pinch of increased prices for essential goods and services, leading to heightened economic insecurity and dissatisfaction with current economic policies," the memo notes. In France (59 percent), Portugal (59 percent), and Italy (54 percent), a majority say their financial situation has gotten worse in the past year, while close to a majority say so in Germany (49 percent) and the Netherlands (48 percent).

The memo also discusses "A Shifting Desire for Conservative Governing Philosophy," noting that "survey results also reveal a noticeable shift towards more conservative political leanings in the face of the economic challenges highlighted above."

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In the Netherlands, just 24 percent think the EU is moving in the right direction, with just 29 percent saying so in Italy and 32 percent saying so in France. 

There's also support for more conservative parties and conservative solutions:

European citizens surveyed also show an eagerness to support conservative parties in their own countries. In France, for instance, the National Rally, a right-wing party, garnered 27% support, reflecting a growing preference for conservative solutions to national issues. Similarly, in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Alternative for Germany (AfD) collectively received 37% of the vote intentions, signaling a significant conservative inclination. 

In Italy, the Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia), another right-wing party, received 19% support, while in the Netherlands, the Party for Freedom (PVV) led with 22% support. Portugal also showed a substantial backing for conservative parties, with 20% supporting the Democratic Alliance and 19% supporting Chega. 

Does that translate to a desire for more conservative leadership? The memo certainly thinks so. "This trend suggests that EU citizens are increasingly turning to conservative parties in hopes of more stringent economic and immigration policies, reflecting a broader skepticism towards liberal approaches in times of economic distress," it reads. 

Respondents are also hungry for a change, with the memo suggesting that there is a "backlash against current governance" and "a general dissatisfaction with current governance." The memo highlights how "a significant portion of respondents in each country still express a strong likelihood to participate in the upcoming EU elections, indicating an engaged electorate eager for change and potentially new leadership."

On illegal immigration, the memo notes that it "is a significant issue for respondents in all surveyed countries, highlighting growing concerns over migration policies and their impact on national security, economy, and social stability."

Respondents were asked if they agree with the statement that "Countries should impose harsher border controls to reduce the flood of illegal migrants coming into Europe." A majority of respondents from all of the five countries agreed, with a plurality from each saying they "strongly agree."

This also has to do with how the results show a keen interest in more conservative leadership. As the memo explains:

The intense agreement with imposing harsher border controls across these countries underscores a pervasive apprehension about illegal migration and its effects on national security, economic stability, and social cohesion. The strong support for stricter immigration measures indicates a significant shift towards conservative viewpoints on this issue, driven by the perceived need to protect national borders and manage migration flows more effectively. 

This sentiment aligns with the broader trend of increasing support for conservative parties that advocate for tougher migration policies. 

The overall focus seems to be a need for change here, as the conclusion reiterates. "In summation, the surveys fielded earlier this month make clear that EU citizens are yearning for changes in their governments and the policies they pursue. There is a strong negative sentiment towards the direction the EU is headed and the leadership in various countries. This phenomenon is driving the uptick in support conservative parties saw in each of our surveys," the conclusion mentions in part, also noting the "data suggests a vast conservative shift is well under way in some of the largest countries in the European Union."

Alex Alvarado, the vice president at Tyson Group, offered as much in a statement as well. "The surveys fielded earlier this month make clear that EU citizens are yearning for changes in their governments and the policies they pursue. There is a strong negative sentiment towards the direction the EU is headed and the leadership in various countries. This phenomenon is driving the uptick in support conservative parties saw in each of our surveys," he said. 

"EU citizens are struggling financially and blame the high taxes and excessive energy regulations that are being pursued by their home governments and in Brussels. The backlash in Europe, however, is not just limited to the economy. Respondents are also worried about the expansion of government censorship and the inability of their leaders to secure their borders. Our data suggests a vast conservative shift is well under way in some of the largest countries in the European Union," he added. 

The poll surveyed 500 registered voters from each member country in their native language. The surveys were conducted May 9-May 16. 

The EU-US Forum also hosted a panel discussion on "Global Migration & Border Security" on Wednesday, which featured former officials who served during the Trump administration and was hosted by Dave Rubin.

The recent polling came up during the panel discussion, and was referenced by Matt Mowers, a founding board member of the EU-US Forum who also worked at the State Department. Not only did he note immigration is "gonna have a dramatic impact" on the election, but he too reiterated a need for change. 

Speaking about voters in the EU, Mowers offered that "they know that the European Union, they know that many of the governments in their own countries have failed to address these core issues around individual liberty and the security around border control, and so they're looking for a change."

Former Acting Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Chad Wolf also highlighted the polling in his remarks. "I think if you look at a majority of Americans or EU folks, right? They want that this is what they are craving right now. And it could be a reaction to the far Left and the Progressive [Party] of where they've taken those different countries over the last three years here in the U.S., or it could just be this is common sense."