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So, Can We Expect Independents to Go for Trump Now Then?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  February 14, 2024 6:00 PM

Who Independents vote for could very well decide who wins the 2024 presidential election. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump won Independents in 2016, and President Joe Biden did in 2020. It's worth reminding, though, that Independents have very much soured on Biden during his presidency, and seem to be supporting Trump according to various polls. It's not just the polls saying as much, but now focus groups as well.

As Matt and Mike Miller over at our sister site of RedState covered earlier on Wednesday, The New York Times conducted a focus group of Independent voters, and were left astonished over how many of the participants were concerned about Biden, enough so to indicate that they're leaning towards Trump. 

"Why This Group of Undecided Independent Voters Is Leaning Toward Trump," read a headline. What the headline doesn't say is that it applies to 11 of the 13 participants. 

The liberal mainstream media outlet was left "shell-shock[ed]," Matt pointed out, but there's also still something to be said that this piece is out there at all. 

This is not to praise the leftist mainstream media in any way for doing their jobs when it comes to reporting accurately on Biden's shortcomings, especially since The New York Times did put out a piece last Thursday about how Republicans "seized" and "pounce[d]" after Special Counsel Robert Hur released a report finding that Biden was too old to charge with mishandling classified documents. But, such accurate reporting may signal that enough Independents and even Democrats are indeed willing to dump Biden over such concerns. 

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It will be interesting to see in time, and that may take the release of exit polls or even more thorough analysis after the 2024 election, how reflective this is of Independent voters overall. The New York Times spoke to undecideds--which is a key distinction--from around the country. These voters came from states that are almost certainly to vote Democratic, like New Jersey, and also Republican, like Alabama. But, there were also voters from battleground swing states like Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Polls show that Trump is performing well in all of those swing states, with a lead over Biden. 

According to RealClearPolling, Trump currently has a lead of +1.1, with 45 percent support to Biden's 43.9 percent. That comes in part as a poll from The Economist/YouGov has them tied at 44 percent each among registered voters and total respondents. The poll shows Trump leading with Independents by almost 20 percent, though, with 45 percent to Biden's 27 percent support. Among Independent leaners, Trump has 42 percent support while Biden drops to 19 percent support.

Such a lack of support is not so surprising, given that the poll also shows 66 percent of Independents disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president. Sixty-nine percent of Independents also don't even want Biden running again for 2024. 

When it comes to who respondents believe will win, 44 percent of registered voters and 45 percent of all respondents said they believe Trump will, while 37 percent of registered voters and 34 percent of all respondents said they believe Biden will. By more than 20 percent, Independents believe that Trump will prevail over Biden, 45-21 percent. In fact, more Independents say they're not sure--at 34 percent--than believe Biden will win. 

The poll also found that 75 percent of Independents consider Biden to be a "weak" leader, with a plurality--at 49 percent--saying he is "very weak." 

When asked "how much of an effect do you think Joe Biden’s health and age would have on his ability to fulfill his duties as President, if he were re-elected in 2024," 65 percent of Independents said it would "severely limit his ability to do the job."

The poll was conducted February 11-13 with 1,671 adult U.S. citizens, which included 1,470 registered voters, for whom the margin of error was at plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Another poll, this one from NPR/PBS/Marist, actually shows Biden leading Trump 48-47 percent among registered voters, though Trump nevertheless leads with Independents 50-42 percent. That poll was conducted January 29-February 1 with 1,582 adults and 1,441 registered voters, for whom the margin of error was at plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. 

It's no wonder that Independents prefer Trump or Biden. We'll see if it sticks, especially since the focus group participants with The New York Times did express criticism towards Trump as well. 

"Then again, when I vote for president I'm not necessarily looking for a role model or even a man or woman with impeccable moral credentials. What I am looking for is the candidate that I believe will best deliver on the issues that are most important to me — from protecting the border and the security of this country to picking Supreme Court nominees who will adhere to the U.S. Constitution rather than try to legislate from the bench," Miller wrote with original emphasis, putting it so well when it comes to picking the next president.