This post has been updated.
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Nikki Haley will win the Nevada primary [UPDATE: She lost to the 'none of these candidates' option], but it doesn’t matter. No delegates will be awarded because the first contest in the West is a multi-layered mess. The primary is tonight, while the old caucus system, in which delegates will be allocated for the Republicans, will be held on Thursday. Polls will close at 7 PM local time, 10 PM EST. Haley is on tonight’s ballot, along with Tim Scott and Mike Pence, both of which have dropped out of the race—Scott has endorsed Trump.
So, we’re bound to have some North Korean propaganda-like nonsense from Haley about how this is a win for her. Obviously—Trump wasn’t on the ballot. The Associated Press added that we should keep an eye on Nevada voters picking ‘none of these candidates’ tonight in a not-so-subtle way to tell Haley to pack it in and go home. Even The New York Times has declared Trump the real winner of the Nevada showdown because he’s the only person who’s going to get delegates in this winner-take-all contest (via NYT):
Democrats got on board — and President Biden is expected to win that contest handily on Tuesday. On the Republican side, however, things did not go according to plan.
A caucus was seen as being beneficial to former President Donald J. Trump, so state party officials — who were aggressively lobbied by the Trump campaign — decided to hold a caucus anyway. The caucus, not the primary, is what will determine which Republican candidate wins Nevada’s delegates.
Nikki Haley, the last remaining significant challenger to Mr. Trump, opted to run in the primary, not the caucus.
So Mr. Trump is effectively in a caucus without a real opponent. And his win is a foregone conclusion.
CBS News explained how this contest got weird regarding holding a primary and a caucus:
A change to state law in 2021 by the majority-Democratic legislature, after years of dwindling attendance at caucuses, transitioned the state from party-run caucuses to government-run primaries going forward. The change came amid a series of new voting initiatives geared toward improving voter access, like expanding voting by mail, at a time when other states were placing more restrictions on voting to counteract allegations of voter fraud.
In a protest to the move, the Nevada Republican Party, which has argued that the caucuses are more secure and encourage candidates to connect with voters, are holding the caucuses anyway. Nevada Republicans have made clear that the caucuses are the only method to earn the party's delegates in the state, while effectively barring anyone on the primary ballot from appearing on the caucus ballot.
"Simply put, candidates who participate in an illegitimate process cannot expect to earn legitimate delegates to the Republican National Convention," the Nevada GOP said in a statement.
That’s why Trump declared victory in Nevada the night he won New Hampshire, which was Haley’s only chance to halt the former president’s momentum. Haley is projected to get obliterated in South Carolina, her home state, where she isn’t reviled. Neither is Tim Scott, but the GOP base is Trump’s now. Republican voters are not prohibited from voting in both if they’re registered with the party and didn’t miss the January 9 deadline to change their registrations.
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UPDATE: Nikki Haley got blown out, and Trump wasn't even on the ballot. 'None of these candidates' received the most votes at 62.9 percent. Haley only managed to nab 30.8 percent. Pack it in, lady.
BREAKING @AP projects "None of These Candidates" wins Nevada’s Republican primary.
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 7, 2024