DES MOINES, IOWA -- Here in the frigid temperatures of the Hawkeye State, caucus-goers will get the 2024 election season underway tonight. As we await results, President Biden -- the presumptive Democratic nominee -- received more stark reminders of his vulnerability, in the form of another batch of truly dismal polling. Per CBS News, by nearly 30 points, Americans say they believe they'd be better off financially if Trump wins the upcoming general election over Biden. By another large margin, they also believe they'd be worse off if Biden is victorious.
Even if economic sentiments start to brighten, and we've seen some evidence of that (although the latest inflation report was worse than expected), this is a big disadvantage for the incumbent:
CBS News Poll: % of Americans who believe they will be financially better off if (X) wins in 2024.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
Trump: 49%
Biden: 21% pic.twitter.com/SGbwUYuRjP
That's a huge data point that helps explain why Biden currently trails all three of the top Republicans in the race, in hypothetical head-to-heads:
GOP primary voters think Trump is their best shot in November, but it's Haley who right now has a bigger lead over Biden than either Trump or DeSantis in potential head-to-head match-ups.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) January 14, 2024
All three of these GOP contenders, have at least a slight national edge on Biden.… pic.twitter.com/9LvMILWeag
Haley leads by eight points, DeSantis by three, and Trump by two. The same survey shows Trump expanding his large national primary lead, though Chris Christie's exit stands to benefit Haley's campaign the most in New Hampshire, where some polls show a competitive race. How a big projected Trump win in Iowa could impact the numbers going forward remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the news doesn't get any better for Biden from ABC News' latest data set:
ABC/Ipsos Poll: Joe Biden’s job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years.
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
Approve: 33% [-4]
Disapprove: 58% [+2]
[Change vs September]
• ABC/Ipsos | n=2,248 | MoE: ±2.5%
• R25/D25/I41 | January 4-8 https://t.co/jlM7aG4TtR pic.twitter.com/rAGmoahl9p
That Trump retrospective approval rating is dismal at net (-12), but Biden's current approval rating is more than twice as bad at net (-25). The president's personal favorability rating is also a few points worse than his predecessor's. Biden's overall, deeply underwater approval margin basically mirrors his standing on the economy. Are assessments of his performance on the border crisis deeper underwater? Why yes, they are:
ABC/Ipsos: Biden Job Approval
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 14, 2024
Approve: 33%
Disapprove: 58%
.
U.S. Mexico border
Approve: 18%
Disapprove: 63%
.
The Economy
Approve: 31%
Disapprove: 56%
n=2,248 | January 4-8 | MoE: ±2.5%https://t.co/jlM7aG4TtR pic.twitter.com/tfDBHJ1tkI
On that front, in case you missed it, I'll leave you with this report that the Biden administration killed a program that facilitates the "deportation of illegal migrant child rapists, attempted murderers, assailants, carjackers, and other known criminals." Who are the 18 percent of Americans who give Biden's border record a thumbs-up?