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Even Polls Where Trump Is Trailing Show Bad News for Biden

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 30, 2023 4:00 PM

As we get that much closer to the 2024 presidential election, which is looking more and more like a rematch of 2020 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, we're seeing an increase in polls and analyses of them. This comes even as we're reminded it's so far out and that the polls could change. It is indeed still a long time from Election Day, and polls indeed could still change, for better or worse for either candidate, assuming these two men even become their party's nominee. That doesn't change how Biden isn't where he wants to be, though, as the current incumbent president.

That there's been so many polls have been reflected in VIP coverage, including this week. Although those polls showing Trump with a strong lead over Biden, such as The Washington Post/ABC News poll from late September, have been regarded as outliers, that doesn't mean there isn't takeaways to be had from them, as Guy has examined. There's also been a steady increase of polls showing that Trump does have a lead over Biden, albeit a small one. 

As of Thursday afternoon, Trump is with a +1.7 lead over Biden, according to RealClearPolitics (RCP). That lead has gone down from what is was just earlier this week, because recent polls showing Biden with a narrow lead have also since been included. 

According to the most recent poll from The Economist/YouGov, Biden leads with 44 percent to Trump's 42 percent among registered voters. That's still within the poll's margin of error plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. As the poll sees it, they're "neck-and-neck." While the poll shows Independents slightly favoring Trump over Biden--37 percent versus 35 percent--it also shows Democrats are slightly more supportive of Biden than Republicans are of Trump, at 87 percent and 85 percent, respectively. That's a bit of a curious find, given how concerned Democrats rightly are with Biden as the nominee, including and especially when it comes to his age and mental capabilities. But that finding also falls into the "neck-and-neck" category.

"Despite his narrow lead, Biden has problems with his reelection campaign," a poll write-up highlighted. Boy, do we know it. A major problem that's discussed is that more respondents believe that Trump will win as opposed to Biden.

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When it comes to registered voters polled, 46 percent believe that Trump will win compared to the 37 percent who believe that Biden will win. Just 67 percent of people who voted for Biden in 2020 believe he will win again, while 80 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 believe he will emerge victorious in 2024. Those numbers are slightly member for Democrats and Biden, at 69 percent, and also better for Republicans and Trump, at 83 percent. Although they're almost just as likely to say they're not sure, with 37 percent saying as much, a plurality of Independents, at 40 percent, believe Trump will win.

The poll's write-up made a point to highlight how "88% of people who say they will vote for Trump expect Trump to win next year; just 75% of people who say they will vote for Biden think their candidate will win."

It would seem that the message that Biden's reelection campaign has really been trying to hammer home to get the base more hopeful hasn't been working out so well, at least not yet.

While that's not a good place for Biden to be, it also is not a good place for Trump to be if he lets it go to his head and he gets cocky about it. Recall how Hillary Clinton in 2016 wondered "why am I not 50 points ahead?" She was cocky, and then she lost. Perhaps nobody was more surprised or disappointed about it than she was.

The poll also found that a small majority of voters in each of the four criminal indictments against Trump believe he is guilty, and that could be a turn off when it comes time for people to vote. This includes pluralities or even majorities of Independents.

It's worth also noting and keeping in mind that 51 percent of registered voters believe that Trump had a better presidency, compared to the 45 percent who said as much about Biden. And yet Trump still slightly trails.

As we near the end of this year, and get closer to the primary season and the election itself, 2024 continues to look even more like a wild ride. It's not necessarily the matchup that Americans really want, though. Kurt put it particularly well with his column headline for Monday's column, "The Guy Who Can’t Win v. the Guy Who Will Lose." 

The poll found that just 27 percent of overall respondents want Biden to run again, and 33 percent say the same about Trump. It was slightly more among registered voters for Biden, with 31 percent saying as much, while 33 percent of registered voters still said the same about Trump. 

Particularly telling is that not even a majority of Biden voters from 2020 want him to run again. Rather it's a plurality who say they do, at 47 percent, while 51 percent of overall Democrats say they want him to run again.

Sixty-three percent of who voted for Trump in 2020 want him to run again though, with 67 percent of Republicans saying so. He's at least got that one more factor going for him.

This poll was conducted November 25-27 with 1,500 respondents, including 1,323 registered voters, the latter for whom there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.