It’s been reported before that Lebanon could be Israel's next target after Gaza. Hezbollah’s activity against Israel along its northern border has intensified since war broke out between Hamas and Israel. Israeli forces invaded on October 28, splitting the Gaza Strip in two and encircling Gaza City, where Hamas is slowly being squeezed out of existence. While no massive offensive has been launched, Hezbollah has increased its rocket activity. The terror group has ballistic missiles and a much better-trained and equipped army, courtesy of Tehran. As Israelis in the south flee north, those in the border region with Lebanon are heading south.
There is political support for military action in Israel to neutralize terror threats, which extends into Lebanon. Ever since Hezbollah rockets rained down on Israel with increased frequency following their Gaza operations, there was a consensus within the IDF that Lebanon would need to be invaded to curb the threat to the north. Israel’s defense minister said as much, and now we have their foreign minister warning the United Nations that if their force in Lebanon can’t get things handled in the southern part of the country, the IDF will (via Times of Israel):
The Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, Eli Cohen has Delievered a Warning to the U.N. National Security Council from the Government of Israel which states that if the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is not able to get the Situation in Southern Lebanon back… pic.twitter.com/NZawp2VD9A
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 21, 2023
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen warns the UN Security Council that a regional war is likely if resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of the Hezbollah terror group, is not fully implemented.
“For the good of regional stability and to avoid further escalation, the next session of the UN Security Council must adopt a totally different approach in order to end the dangerous violations by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups on the border,” Cohen writes to the Security Council, Channel 12 News reports.
Hezbollah, Hamas and other terror groups in southern Lebanon have routinely fired rockets at Israeli cities and attacked IDF forces on the Israel-Lebanon border ever since Hamas’s October 7 atrocities, resulting in a number of Israeli fatalities.
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UN Security Council resolution 1701 brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and called for the disarmament of all non-state armed forces in Lebanon, as well as for the region between the Israel-Lebanon border and the Litani River to be freed of all armed forces other than the Lebanese army and the UN’s peacekeeping mission UNIFIL.
These clauses of the resolution were never implemented, and Hezbollah has become a heavily armed terror militia. It claims to have tens of thousands of fighters and possesses a reported arsenal of some 150,000 rockets and missiles of different types.
Hezbollah has essentially declared war on Israel since their Gaza operations commenced. With air operations now being re-focused to deal with threats in Lebanon, we’ll see what happens next, especially with this new hostage-based ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.