Tipsheet

This Is Why You Really Can't Trust the Polls on Trump Regarding These Indictments

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  June 21, 2023 8:05 PM

Don’t read the polls about Trump and the indictments because they’ve become even more unreliable. New surveys took less than a week to show Trump’s support among GOP voters crumbling post-indictment. That’s not accurate. It’s not even remotely within the realm of possibility. Donald Trump has a sizeable lead in the GOP primaries, and support among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents has become even more entrenched. Harvard Harris found that 56 percent felt the Trump indictment over classified materials was election interference on behalf of the Justice Department. Trump isn’t in trouble, and if the timing and skepticism weren’t apparent from the outset, the poll is from CNN (via NY Post): 

Republican support for former President Donald Trump has dipped since he was charged with 37 felony counts related to his alleged mishandling and concealment of classified White House documents, according to a new poll. 

The new CNN poll, released on Tuesday and conducted entirely after the 77-year-old former president’s arraignment in a Miami, Fla., federal court, shows that both support for his 2024 presidential candidacy and positive views of him among Republican and Republican-leaning voters have declined compared to last month. 

The survey found that 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice for the GOP’s standard bearer in 2024, down from 53% in May.   

In comparison, support for Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis remained unchanged since last month, with 26% supporting the governor of the Sunshine State. 

It’s way too early for this, folks. ABC News was beside itself Sunday over an NPR/PBS News poll showing that Trump was getting stronger with his base and that the former president and Joe Biden were tied in a head-to-head match-up. We will get more into the weeds and the general election implications when the delegate count gets going for the primaries, but there isn’t be an event that takes out Trump.