Tipsheet

So, China Might Soon Have Troops Stationed in Cuba

Remember earlier this month when the National Security Council's John Kirby said on TV that reports of a Chinese Communist Party spy base being set up in Cuba were "not accurate," at least in their "original" form? And then roughly one week ago when Kirby repeated the same assertion in a White House press briefing?

Evidently, Kirby's statements — ones that did not explain what or how much of the reports were "inaccurate" — were informed by since-declassified U.S. intelligence reports that confirm "Chinese intelligence collection facilities have existed in Cuba since at least 2019." That's not exactly the kind of White House fact-checking that's reassuring to Americans.

As it turns out, the White House and Kirby's response to previous reports about China-Cuba cooperation were essentially boilerplate pushback used in place of fully clarifying those stories were wrong, but only because the full story paints an even more dire picture.

According to a new report in The Wall Street Journal, it's not just that the Chinese Communist Party has worked out agreements with Cuba to have a few intelligence officers keeping a closer eye or ear on the United States. No, China is working toward establishing a joint military training base on Cuba, just 100 or so miles off the coast of Florida. 

That is, the Chinese Community Party is reportedly nearing a finalized deal to have troops and other military assets within a raft ride from the United States mainland. 

Via WSJ:

China and Cuba are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on the island, sparking alarm in Washington that it could lead to the stationing of Chinese troops and other security and intelligence operations just 100 miles off Florida’s coast, according to current and former U.S. officials.

Discussions for the facility on Cuba’s northern coast are at an advanced stage but not concluded, U.S. intelligence reports suggest. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try to forestall the deal, seeking to tap in to what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty. Beijing’s effort to establish a military training facility in Cuba hasn’t been previously reported.

The White House declined to comment...

Current and former U.S. officials said a new military facility could provide China with a platform to potentially house troops permanently on the island and broaden its intelligence gathering, including electronic eavesdropping, against the U.S.

Most worrying for the U.S.: The planned facility is part of China’s “Project 141,” an initiative by the People’s Liberation Army to expand its global military base and logistical support network, one current and one former U.S. official said.

China and Cuba already jointly run four eavesdropping stations on the island, according to U.S. officials. That network underwent a significant upgrade around 2019, when a single station expanded to a network of four sites that are operated jointly, and Chinese involvement deepened, according to the officials.

There also are signs of changes in the arrangement for those facilities that officials say could signal greater Chinese involvement, though the details are scant. A U.S. intelligence report earlier this year referred to the “centralization” of the management of the four joint sites, but what precisely that entails isn’t clear.

This latest development comes as more information on the Chinese spy balloon that drifted across the United States comes to light, namely that it had more and better capabilities than the Biden administration previously knew while it sought to assure Americans that the balloon did not pose a threat and that countermeasures had negated the balloons abilities. 

According to NBC News' reporting, a "recently completed investigation of the balloon's debris found that Beijing's capabilities are far more sophisticated than the U.S. had believed."