Tipsheet

Trump Pollster Doesn't Have Great News for Trump

Spencer Brown
Spencer Brown  |  June 06, 2023 1:30 PM

As the 2024 GOP presidential primary gets even more crowded this week with Chris Christie and Mike Pence throwing their hats into the ring, there's been some movement at the top of the polls in Iowa, a key early state for campaigns to show their momentum and base of support.

Specifically, comparing Iowa polls conducted by Trump pollster McLaughlin and Associates — one from the end of April and another from the end of May — Trump's support has fallen while DeSantis' has increased for a net swing of nine points in the month leading up to the week Florida's governor officially announced his presidential campaign.

At the end of April, in a McLaughlin and Associates poll conducted from 4/27 to 4/30, Trump had 54 percent to DeSantis' 20 percent — a 34 point lead for the former president among surveyed likely caucus-goers. 

By the end of May, in another McLaughlin and Associates poll conducted from 5/23-5/24, Trump fell to 49.5 percent while DeSantis saw his support grow to 24.5 percent — taking Trump's lead down to +25 points.

The shift among likely Iowa caucus-goers from the end of April to the end of May recorded by McLaughlin and Associates was also found, on a greater scale, in a comparison of two polls from DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, shared with and reported by Axios this week:

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...Never Back Down says that DeSantis' numbers have rebounded over the past month with likely caucus-goers and shared two internal polls with Axios, one taken in mid-May and another taken from May 30 to June 1 with 655 respondents.

The latest poll showed the Florida governor effectively tied with Trump in Iowa with a head-to-head matchup, up from DeSantis' 14-point deficit in mid-May.

With the other candidates included, DeSantis was further away from Trump but had still gained ground. In the most recent survey, Trump led DeSantis 39%-29%, compared to 24%-48% earlier in the month.

While there are still months of campaigning to be done between now and the Iowa caucuses, the trend suggesting DeSantis is eating into Trump's support is one that the DeSantis campaign will no doubt look to turn into momentum in the weeks and months ahead before Iowans officially register their preference to carry the GOP banner into 2024.

While Iowa's first statewide vote on primary candidates is hardly a perfect determiner of overall primary performance — just ask Pete Buttigieg, Dick Gephardt, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump — it can provide important momentum heading into subsequent contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada while also often having the effect of weeding out low-performance candidates and forcing their backers to choose a new contender to support.