Tipsheet
Premium

The Last Round of Polls Show Good News for Republicans

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 07, 2022 11:00 PM

On Sunday and Monday, the final rounds of polling were released, and they all, in one way or another, showed good news for Republicans ahead of what is expected to be a red wave. While it may take a few days before we know all the results, voters will head to the polls in a matter of hours and within 24-hours we will likely know the winners of many races, which will provide an indication of how right--or wrong--these polls were.

NBC News released their poll on Sunday, which Chuck Todd discussed on that edition of "Meet the Press." As Leah also highlighted earlier on Monday, a particular number that doesn't bode well for the Democrats is that a whopping 81 percent  said they were dissatisfied with the economy. 

That was the second-highest number recorded, with only 2010 being higher, Todd mentioned, reminding "you know how that one went." Indeed we do. Democrats lost 63 seats in the House that year. 

Another Sunday poll included one from ABC News/Washington Post, which was discussed on ABC News' "This Week," where host Martha Raddatz began by highlighting the poll's results, especially when it comes to the economy. 

As she mentioned, "80 percent of voters say the economy is a top issue, with nearly half of Americans saying that they're worst off financially than they were two years ago. And Republicans have a clear advantage when it comes to trust over handling of the economy. Voters preferring Republicans by 14 points." She even noted that the results are "what pollsters call political poison."

Recommended

The Forever-Tarnished Legacy of Barack Obama Jeff Davidson
Bombshell Report Reveals Disturbing Truths About the Biden-Harris Parole Pipeline Sarah Arnold

Headlines from both ABC News and The Washington Post also highlighted the economy, with headlines of "Economic discontent fuels GOP hopes as midterms draw to a close: POLL," and "Post-ABC poll: House vote nearly split, GOP has edge on economy and turnout," respectively. 

Those results in question show that the 80 percent Raddatz mentioned who consider the economy a top issue makes it the most important out of eight issues. Similarly, 77 percent said inflation was a top issue. The Democrats' issues of "threats to democracy" and abortion came in at fourth and sixth place with 74 percent and 62 percent, respectively, saying it was one of the most important issues. 

Republicans also have a double-digit lead when it comes to the the trust that registered voters have to handle the economy and inflation. On the former issue, 52 percent of such respondents trust Republicans more, compared to 38 percent who say they trust Democrats. And on the latter issue, 50 percent of registered voters trust Republicans more, compared to the 38 percent who say they trust Democrats. 

Even better for Republicans is that that poll showed Republicans with 50 percent support compared to the Democrats' 48 percent support. It was conducted October 30-November 2, with 1,005 adults, 708 of whom were likely voters. Among those respondents, the margin of error was 4.5 points.

A poll from The Economist/YouGov also found that the economy played a major role, and again, it's not looking good for Biden and the Democrats. 

As is the case with other polls, a majority of respondents, including 75 percent of likely voters, believe that the economy is only "fair" or "poor," with a plurality, at 46 percent, saying it's "poor." The economy is considered the most important factor of any issue or person, with 74 percent of likely voters saying it matters "a lot." Similarly, inflation/prices comes in as the second most important factor, with 69 percent of likely voters saying it matters "a lot."

That poll also found that 49 percent of likely voters want to see Republicans control Congress, while 48 said they want Democrats to. The poll, conducted November 3-6, surveyed 1,500 adults, including 1,068 likely voters. 

Another poll worth mentioning includes Data for Progress, which has Republicans up on the generic congressional ballot by 52-48 percent, as well as individual Republican candidates ahead in multiple Senate races.

And another poll comes from the Trafalgar Group, which showed Republicans with a particular edge on the generic ballot, 48.4 percent to 42.7 percent for Democrats. It's also worth mentioning that the poll included a plurality of Democratic respondents, at 39.3 percent, compared to 35.6 percent of Republicans, and 25.1 percent of those with no or other party affiliation. 

As for the recent polls which claim to show Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, including and especially POLITICO/Morning Consult's poll of registered voters--not likely voters--showing Democrats ahead, it sure will be fun to examine how wrong that poll got it in the coming days. Even the POLITICO write-up acknowledges it's "an outlier."

As of Sunday night, RealClearPolitics (RCP) has Republicans up with a +2.5 lead on the generic ballot.