When it comes to midterm elections, the president's party historically loses seats in Congress, especially when it comes to presidents with low approval ratings. When legislation was passed in late July and August, such as the CHIPS Act and the misnamed "Inflation Reduction Act," President Joe Biden's approval ratings went slightly up, something Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media were quick to promote. July was not a good month for the president, though, and his ratings went back down again in September, not good signs as we get closer to the fast-approaching November midterms.
Ahead of Midterm Elections, Biden’s Net Approval Rating Is Underwater in 45 States https://t.co/gHwVyg9d4E via @eyokley
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 13, 2022
On Thursday, Morning Consult released a poll showing that the president was underwater in 45 states using data for the third quarter, from July 1-September 30. Biden had been underwater in 44 states in the second quarter, as was revealed in July.
The poll's write-up from Eli Yokley begins with a warning for Democrats as we get closer to the midterms:
If voters interpret next month’s midterm elections as a referendum on President Joe Biden’s job performance, Morning Consult Political Intelligence tracking suggests Democrats are in for a shellacking, with majorities of voters in 41 states disapproving of his work in office in the third quarter of 2022.
As he later goes on to write:
In states that will be key to the Democratic Party’s chances of maintaining its narrow grip on the Senate next month, Biden is underwater by double digits.
Solid majorities of voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance in Arizona (58%), Nevada (56%), New Hampshire (60%), North Carolina (58%), Ohio (60%), Pennsylvania (58%) and Wisconsin (57%). In each of these states, voters are at least twice as likely to “strongly disapprove” of Biden than they are to strongly approve of him. It’s a severe warning sign for Democrats: If voters who head to the polls in November are chiefly motivated by Biden’s job performance, Republicans can expect a turnout advantage.
Morning Consult also shared a video on Twitter that showed regression in support. In March 2021, Biden had a negative or zero net approval rating in 19 states. In June 2021, that number grew to 22 states and then exploded to 32 states in September 2021, only going downhill from there to 38 in December 2021, 39 in March 2022, 44 in July 2022, and now 45 states where he is underwater.
Between the second and third quarters of 2022, Biden’s net approval has declined the most in Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Oregon, and his disapproval rating reached 50% in Hawaii for the first time in his presidency, pushing his net approval into the red. https://t.co/gHwVygqNWc pic.twitter.com/EZ7MMPrEyU
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 13, 2022
For this most recent poll, Biden is underwater in every state except California (where his approval is the highest at +9), Vermont (+8), Maryland and New York (each +3), and Massachusetts (+2).
Of special note is that the president's approval rating declined the most in Hawaii and Oregon, what may be normally thought of as particularly blue states. In Hawaii, Biden is at a -5 net approval after being at a +6 in July. He has a -11 net approval in Oregon after being -2 in July.
While Biden has a net approval in Massachusetts, Yokley has a warning about the state: "less than half of voters residing in the Bay State approved of his job performance in the third quarter — another first for his term."
Although Yokley does not mention the Oregon gubernatorial race, it's worth noting that the state could have a Republican governor for the first time since 1987. Republican nominee Christine Drazan continues to lead in the polls in her three-way race against Democrat Tina Kotek and independent Betsy Johnson.
Yokley does mention other races, though, especially when it comes to Democratic senators running for re-election who don't seem to be as plagued by such approval ratings as Biden. The very next paragraph, after a potential "shellacking," goes on to mention:
The surveys indicate Biden may be weighing down the environment his party’s vulnerable senators are facing even further as they endure consistent attacks from their Republican challengers. However, those lawmakers also look positioned to share at least some votes with Republican governors who are also on the ballot next month.
There's also later on a more in-depth mention of how other Democrats are faring better than Biden:
However, other data suggests voters may be adjudging this midterm election cycle differently than most. For example, despite Biden’s diminished standing across the Senate battleground, a handful of Democratic incumbents — most notably, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona — appear to be resisting the downward tug.
Kelly, once seen as the most vulnerable Senate Democrat, is outpacing Biden’s approval rating 50% to 40%, and far fewer voters are giving the freshman lawmaker negative marks (42% to 58%). These numbers mark a modest improvement for Kelly ahead of his contest against Republican Blake Masters next month — a rarity when compared with other Democratic incumbents.
But while other Democratic incumbents aren’t increasing their popularity during the homestretch of their contested re-election campaigns, they aren’t necessarily suffering either.
In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray’s approval rating (48%) went unchanged between the two quarters as Republicans have reached to target her seat with Tiffany Smiley. It’s a similar story for Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (47% approval), who will face Republican Joe O’Dea next month. The two lawmakers, whose seats are viewed as bigger reaches for the GOP, hold similar approval ratings to the president but have much lower disapproval ratings.
The third-quarter surveys showed the environment in Nevada to be essentially unchanged from the prior quarter, with Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto strongly outpacing the president’s popularity. Things have gotten slightly worse for Democrats in Georgia, where Sen. Raphael Warnock faces Republican Herschel Walker, and in New Hampshire, where Sen. Maggie Hassan is pitted against Republican Donald Bolduc.
In Georgia and New Hampshire, Biden’s net approval rating has continued to decline. Still, as is the case in Arizona and Nevada, both Warnock and Hassan are outpacing Biden’s approval rating while keeping their disapproval ratings much lower than the president’s.
When it comes to such races, certain incumbents are in a better position than others, including Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Patty Murray (D-WA), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH).
Republican candidates look to have a better chance against Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), especially as the latter's race is considered a "toss-up," and polling actually shows her opponent, Adam Laxalt, with a small lead.
Even with such signs of cautious optimism expressed for Democratic incumbents here, control of the Senate is considered a "toss-up" or to only slightly favor Democrats.