Tipsheet

Here's When the U.S. Expects Kyiv to Fall

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  February 24, 2022 12:05 PM

Even if they put up a good fight, Ukraine cannot win this war. They can’t. The gulf separating the capabilities between the two nations is wider than the Pacific. Ukraine has no way to counter Russian aircraft or missiles. They’re outmatched in men and heavy equipment. It’s only a matter of time before Russian tanks are rolling into the capital of Kyiv. Yesterday, Russians launched their massive offensive against the rest of Ukraine which we all saw coming. Biden was asleep. We’ll hear from him later this afternoon. More American troops are said to be deployed east. We’ll keep you updated about other sanctions that are reportedly coming. 

For now, the stream of cars we saw pouring out the Kyiv was for a simple reason. The people know they can’t stay there. The Ukrainian military can’t hold it. The timetable for the fall is within days. In 96 hours, the city could be surrounded by Russian troops. An airbase 15 miles from the capital was reportedly attacked by Russian forces today. Bear with us as a lot of information is unconfirmed. We’re dealing with a part of the world where state media keeps a lock and key on everything. Newsweek has more: 

Three U.S. officials have told Newsweek they expect Ukraine's capital Kyiv to fall to incoming Russian forces within days, and the country's resistance to be effectively neutralized soon thereafter.

The officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that Moscow's focus, as revealed in Russian President Vladimir Putin's references to a "special military operation" to "demilitarize" the neighboring country, would be to encircle Ukrainian forces and force them to surrender or be destroyed. They expect Kyiv to be taken within 96 hours, and then the leadership of Ukraine to follow in about a week's time.

And Russia's thunderous attacks on Ukrainian government and military institutions, paired with reports of ground personnel seeking to take strategic points including the Chernobyl nuclear facility, appeared to only be the initial phase of what may be a more comprehensive ground campaign.

[…]

… the senior U.S. intelligence officer said the next stages may be determined by U.S. President Joe Biden's capability and willingness to risk further provoking Moscow by supporting partisan efforts on behalf of a potential Ukrainian resistance.

"Then it either becomes a robust insurgency or it doesn't, depending largely on Biden," the former senior U.S. intelligence officer said.

[…]

A source close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government, who also asked not to be named, agreed with the U.S. assessment that Kyiv could be surrounded within 96 hours. But they did not believe Zelenskyy's government would collapse.

[…]

The Antonov Airport near the town of Hostomel, just outside Kyiv, was the scene of some of the most dramatic early fighting. Ukrainian Interior Ministry officials reported early Thursday that Russian helicopter-borne forces had seized the airfield, though fighting around it is believed to be ongoing.

There are many, many issues scenarios to be gamed out here especially the potential Ukrainian insurgency phase. What do we do? What does Joe Biden do—and can he even do it? Biden has been wrong on every major foreign policy endeavor for the past 40 years. Afghanistan showed he’s still a terrible decision maker.