Let's start with the lesser "oh my" survey result, which comes in the form of an internal poll giving Republican Glenn Youngkin a four-point lead over Democrat Terry McAuliffe in next Tuesday's Virginia gubernatorial election. What's interesting here, among other factors, is the trajectory in this particular polling series. It showed McAuliffe up five in June, then McAuliffe up two in August, and now this:
An internal poll found Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin ahead of Democratic former Gov. Terry McAuliffe by 4 percentage points, signaling significant gains in a competitive race for Virginia governor. The Republican Winsome Sears for Lieutenant Governor Campaign poll conducted by co/efficient , provided exclusively to the Washington Examiner, found Youngkin with 47% support among likely voters and McAuliffe with 43%. Third-party candidate Princess Blanding had 5% support, and another 5% were undecided...In the lieutenant governor race, the poll finds Sears leading Democratic Delegate Hala Ayala 47% to 46%. In the attorney general race, Republican Jason Miyares leads Democratic incumbent Mark Herring 46% to 45%. A generic state House of Delegates ballot found that 48% chose Republican and 46% chose Democratic.
We recently covered GOP internal polling pointing toward the possibility of a Republican sweep in Virginia. Could that be materializing? That question brings us to the bigger "oh my" outcome, via Fox News' pollster. This detonated last evening:
?? Oh my ??
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 28, 2021
?? New Fox poll of #VAGov (likely voters):
Youngkin (R) 53
McAuliffe (D) 45
Youngkin also leads among RV’s by 1 point. MoE +/- 3 points. Massive shift from the last poll in this series, which had McAuliffe up five points. Election is Tuesday.
Yowza. I'll remind you that Virginia is a state Joe Biden won by ten points. Let's have a look at some of the cross-tabs:
Word of caution from a Fox pollster:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 28, 2021
“Chris Anderson says if Democrats sense defeat, enthusiasm could shift in the final days of the campaign.
‘With the race essentially tied among the full registered voter universe, McAuliffe could still pull this off.’” https://t.co/MSUlMITNnq
As I said on Special Report last evening, if these stats are even in the ballpark of what the electorate will look like on Tuesday after the votes are counted, it would make sense that Youngkin sounded so upbeat on my radio show yesterday afternoon. It would also help explain how ornery and desperate Terry McAuliffe has seemed in recent days. His internals must look worrying, too. Here's one of his tweets yesterday, which is entirely comprised of debunked falsehoods or projection:
Glenn Youngkin’s book banning and far-right culture wars have no place in our schools. Next week, Virginia parents will stand up to the politics of hate and division and choose a better way. pic.twitter.com/BEDbfW3roV
— Terry McAuliffe (@TerryMcAuliffe) October 28, 2021
I'll leave you with this story, which references this Iowa race that Democrats considered trying to steal before finally backing down. It's fitting for McAuliffe, who is a shameless election truther:
“McAuliffe spends big in final days on sanctioned lawyer who sued to overturn Iowa House race” https://t.co/IaIJKtKOKP
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) October 28, 2021
Parting thought: If he ends up losing on Tuesday, will McAuliffe accept the result and concede?