With the California recall election just a few weeks away on Sept. 14, many are beginning to seriously wonder if a Republican—namely frontrunner Larry Elder—will be able to defeat Gov. Gavin Newsom. The progressive Democrat is getting nervous, as are top Democrats, including President Joe Biden to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, both of whom are urging residents to keep the Democrat in his job. Pelosi even has her "own operation working to get out the vote, making calls to defeat the recall of our governor."
These Democrats have every right to be nervous since the latest polling shows the recall within the margin of error. Based on FiveThirtyEight's latest average of gubernatorial recall election polls, "accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size," 48.8 percent of residents want Newsom to stay in his job, while 47.6 percent want him gone.
Polls Show Recall Within Margin of Error: Put together they show “keep” up by just a percent over “remove.” Elder remains out front as the replacement by double digits.
— Larry Elder (@larryelder) August 19, 2021
https://t.co/6huDiaDdqP#RecallGavinNewsom #WeveGotAStateToSave
After Californians are asked this question, they'll be faced with who to replace him with. Elder is leading the field of challengers at this point.
As The New York Times notes, Newsom's political future will be determined by whether Democrats will be able to turn out enough Democratic votes in the state.
Can Gov. Gavin Newsom keep his job? Recent polls show it’s a dead heat as some 22 million ballots go out to California voters this week. https://t.co/Fs7keIvOT3
— The New York Times (@nytimes) August 17, 2021