Tipsheet

Anyone Notice the Youth Vote Figure from Minnesota’s Early Voting Numbers? It’s Not Good…If You’re Joe Biden

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  November 02, 2020 8:45 PM

Political coalitions are not transferrable, and the Democrats could possibly learn that again the hard way come Election Day. Like Trump, Barack Obama undoubtedly was a figure who could get unmotivated people to the polls. He did that. Generally, he had a coalition of young people, minority voters, and union workers. That’s almost unbeatable, so thank God we have term limits. Hillary Clinton thought she could do that in 2016 and failed miserably. Now, we have Joe Biden out there seemingly oblivious to the fact that his support with Black Americans is cool at best. Like with Hillary, young people are not excited about Joe. The difference between like and love is huge for ground game operations. And as you see in Florida, voters liking but not loving Biden is the cause of Democrats' early voting heartburn down there. In the Sunshine State, Democrats are in a panic. Up north, Michael Moore is firing off warning flares in Michigan, and rightfully so. It’s tightened up across the Rust Belt.

In 2016, Trump came very close to winning Minnesota, losing to Hillary Clinton by less than two points. Now, the Iron Range appears to be flipping. Is it enough to carry the state this cycle? We shall see, but one thing that we mentioned regarding the youth vote seems to be happening based on early voting totals. They’re not showing up. And young people are a cohort that really doesn’t vote to begin with, barring the Obama years. Only three percent of ballots were from the 18-24 age demographic.

As Larry Schweikart, who has been tracking early vote totals, noted “this group needed to be plus 30 to offset election day shortfalls.” He also thinks it's a bogus age designation, as it should be renamed for college kids. Yet, youth voter engagement this cycle has been low, the lowest since 2000. Democracy Institute’s poll estimated that one million fewer young people will vote in 2020. Well, we could be getting a taste of that in Minnesota.

Also, that poll noted that this cycle's shy Trump voter is real, it’ll likely be Black urban women, and Trump Democrats will be in greater numbers. All will be revealed in due time. Don’t forget to vote.