Tipsheet

Poll: The Shy Trump Vote Is Bigger This Year...And Who Falls into This Category Should Terrify Democrats

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 10, 2020 3:00 AM

I’ll say it again, folks. The polling is screwed. It’s skewed. It’s a mess. Either we’re right to be highly skeptical and Trump wins an Electoral College landslide, or the pollsters are right and we’re heading for Armageddon come Election Day. Still, the oversampling of Democrats, college-educated voters, and suburban Republicans hostile to Trump should bring a ton of scrutiny. The reluctance from some of these clown firms to switch to likely voter samples is also suspect. We’re not going to have a 2008 or 2012 electorate. For starters, a new Hill-Harris poll noted that young Americans are not excited about this election at all. They’re not planning on voting. Gallup is reporting the youth interest in voting this cycle has hit its lowest levels since 2000. That’s in keeping with the results from Democracy Institute’s Patrick Basham, whose polling data, which has been mentioned in The Washington Times and Forbes, suggests there will be one million fewer young people voting this cycle.

Basham spoke with Joseph Cotto about his new data. PollWatch had a good thread summarizing the interview. Democracy Institute's poll had a sample size of 1,500 likely voters, where Trump leads Joe Biden by one point. He also noted that the “shy Trump” vote is very much alive and will be bigger this time. Suburban white women and urban black women are the two groups that are most likely to fall into the shy category for the 2020 cycle. That latter part should shake Democrats to their core. And as for Florida, a state that Biden must carry, it could already be out of his reach. Basham notes Trump cannot fall asleep at the wheel, but things are becoming more comfortable for him in the Sunshine State. And based on some recent polling from the state, it looks like the tide has shifted solidly in favor of the president.

Over the summer, the pollsters at CNN even noted that should Biden fail to retake Florida on election night, his chances of winning the race dip below 50 percent.

Some call them shy Trumpers, while others call them "sleepers." I prefer the latter term, to be honest, but this group, coupled with Trump Democrats, which are said to be in greater numbers this year, is excellent news amid a slew of suppression polls from the liberal media.