The three most recent national polls of the presidential race paint three starkly different pictures. CNN's latest survey shows Joe Biden holding a commanding 11-point lead over President Trump and enjoying the support of an outright majority (53/42) of registered voters. Monmouth gives Biden a much slimmer edge, with the candidates separated by just four percentage points, and both well short of the 50 percent mark:
New national Monmouth poll just out:
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 9, 2020
Biden 48%
Trump 44%
And as Reagan covered on Friday, fresh Fox News polling found the race exactly tied, with each major party candidate in the low 40's:
Buckle up pic.twitter.com/C3WzPYfI09
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 9, 2020
Fox's previous survey, released in late March, gave Biden a nine-point lead. Interestingly, Trump's job approval bump has subsided, but he's still rating higher on that measure than he is on head-to-head ballot questions:
Six fairly fresh national polls all show Trump w/ higher approval than support on ballot against Biden:
— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) April 9, 2020
Monmouth 46 app / 44 ballot
Quinnipiac 45 / 41
CNN 44 / 42
IBD/TIPP 45 /41
Economist/YouGov 45 /42
Grinnell/Selzer 48 /43
Will Trump's approvers "come home" and ultimately vote for him? Plausibly so. Remember, he was suffering from record-high unfavorable ratings and still won in 2016, albeit against an almost preternaturally unlikable opponent. I'm not sure any of the current polling is terribly useful at this point. We're in the middle of a black swan event with an uncertain conclusion. What will matter far more than any momentary horse race development is how life is looking and feeling next fall. Has the virus been defeated or significantly mitigated? Do people think that the government, on balance, performed adequately? Is the economy bouncing back robustly? These are towering 'known unknowns' that are basically the whole ballgame. And the political blame game in full swing:
The former head of the CDC told the New York Times up to 80 percent of the deaths in New York could have been averted if Andrew Cuomo and Bill de Blasio reacted sooner to COVID-19. Over 8,000 are now dead. Liberals cling to the fantasy it's all Trump's fault.
— Ross Barkan (@RossBarkan) April 11, 2020
Man, Biden is gonna get crushed pic.twitter.com/Nu63fqNP8g
— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) April 9, 2020
The fact-checkers are going to have a very busy few months. I'll leave you with this is interesting analysis:
Biden starts the general election with a lead in national polls, but it's closer than it looks. The polls show the electorate split along the same demographic lines as 2016, leaving Trump's relative edge in the Electoral College intact. https://t.co/xYu9cn1jxf
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) April 13, 2020
Quote: "At the moment, a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide. As a result, he holds only a narrow and tenuous edge in the race for the Electoral College, if he holds one at all. Even under ordinary circumstances, with seven months to go until the election, there would be plenty of time for the race to change. This cycle, the country also faces a pandemic and a severe economic downturn with the potential to upend the race...at least for now, the polls suggest that American voters are divided along familiar lines, despite countless events that seemed to have the potential to redraw them."