Tipsheet

New Iowa Poll: Carson 28, Trump 20, Rubio 13, Cruz 10

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  October 22, 2015 1:31 PM

Significant, as this is the first major poll since July in which Donald Trump has trailed anyone in the field -- both nationally and in key early states. Quinnipiac has a strong reputation as a pollster, but this data is an outlier. For now. Time will tell whether these numbers are indicative of a bad sample or a larger trend:

With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 - 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent. Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Carson tops Trump 33 - 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump.Trump tops the "no way" list as 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say they "would definitely not support" him for the GOP nomination. Bush is next on this "no way" list with 21 percent.

He's down eight to Carson, with Rubio and Cruz pushing into double-digit territory. As for that "no way" category, take a look:


Of the top four finishers in this survey, Trump is by far the least acceptable to the overall Iowa Republican electorate.  Thirty percent say they'd never vote for him, with Jeb Bush close behind at 21 percent (more than quadruple the level of support he garners in this poll).  By contrast, just four percent of respondents say the same of Carson, five percent of Rubio, and seven percent of Cruz.  I'll leave you with with some data that will please Trump supporters.  The latest WaPo/ABC News national survey measures The Donald's support at 32 percent, leading Carson by ten points.  This is his best showing since a CNN poll taken from the very beginning of September:


UPDATE - Trump does not appear to be taking these poll results very well: