Credible sources tell me that Sen. Wendy Davis will run for Governor in 2014 and not seek reelection to Texas Senate District 10. It will set up a high stakes match-up with Attorney General Greg Abbott in the November 4, 2014, general election.
Sen. Davis believes that she faces a tough race regardless of whether she seeks reelection to the Senate or runs for Governor. In 2010, Gov. Rick Perry received 52.7% of the vote in SD 10 compared to 44.6% for Mayor Bill White. In 2012, Gov. Romney defeated President Obama in SD 10 53.3% to 45.4%.
Sen. Davis has been elected twice in SD 10, so it clearly is a winnable race -- but tough. Sen. Davis is now a national figure for Texas Democrats, and a senate reelection run would draw in national money both for and against her. If she is going to have a tough nationalized race, she would prefer it be for Governor.
The last Democrat to be elected Texas Governor was Ann Richards in 1990. Since then, the Democratic nominee has received the following percentage of the vote: 1994 - Richards 45.7%; 1998 - Mauro 31.2%; 2002 - Sanchez 40%; 2006 - Bell 29.8%; 2010 - White 42.3%. Public Policy Polling released a poll July 2, 2013, showing General Abbott leading Sen. Davis 48% to 40%, and the same poll had Gov. Perry leading Sen. Davis 53% to 39%. Texas is still a deeply red state, and running for Governor as a Democrat in Texas is a steep uphill climb.
So can she win? Not likely. Despite Davis repeatedly stating Texas women agree with her on the issue of "women's health," a majority of women in the Lone Star State and throughout the country approve of a ban on abortions after five months of pregnancy, something Davis has risen to fame for opposing.
Late last week, Attorney General and Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Greg Abbott told the Dallas News Davis' potential to oppose him isn't his concern at this point.
What do you think of potential opponent Wendy Davis?
“My focus isn’t on any particular person who’s going to run for the office. My focus is going to be on the people of Texas. If that’s your focus, finding ways to improve the state for the people of Texas, it frankly doesn’t matter who runs.”