Every turn, every voter bloc, every demographic ran away from the Republican Party on Tuesday night. Once again, only Florida remained true. Young men, once a linchpin of the 2024 Trump resurgence, shifted violently to the left. There’s talk about the Iran War, gas prices, tariffs, etc., though I think we’ll find out that the Iran War was the main reason the Trump administration and the GOP were blown out on Tuesday.
Not that it was earth-shattering because everyone turned on the GOP, but the largest religious group that turned out on Election Day were those who weren’t religious at all:
This may be of interest only to me but the largest religious group to show up at the polls yesterday was no religion at all: https://t.co/9uaoakxDSR
— Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) November 4, 2026
Sure, you can make jokes about Godless heathens casting ballots and turning the nation into a hellhole, but that’s not the reason. The Trump administration doubled down on some atrocious policies. The Iran War turned into a carousel, with the president promising new deals, ceasefires, and new bombings. Rinse and repeat.
In the end, the GOP base collapsed. White noncollege-educated voters won by 14 points for Democrats. Nonwhite working-class voters, where the GOP was making inroads, swung 23 points to Democrats. White men overall swung 15 points to Democrats.
And that’s just the surface. The working-class base of the Trump coalition flipped. And this bloc only needs a small single-digit swing to make things interesting; double digits and it’s death.