NBC News Data Analyst Has Some Bad News for Dems in Minnesota

Trump did come close to winning Minnesota, closer than any Republican in recent memory, especially in 2016. The Iron Range is seeing political shifts, and Gov. Tim Walz, Lt. Gov., and Democrat Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan haven’t necessarily done the Democrat Party any favors either, with their apparent lackadaisical approach toward rampant fraud schemes among the Somali community. Walz was going to run for a third term. Nick Shirley’s investigative reports ended it. So, with Flanagan running against sports reporter-turned-Republican politician Michele Tafoya, I’m sure Democrats thought they had this seat well defended. That could be changing, as NBC News’ Steve Kornacki explained (via The Hill):

Steve Kornacki sees tide "working against" Democrat in the Minnesota Senate race “There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats” https://t.co/lJ8GtOE2cK

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 22, 2026

NBC News’s chief data analyst, on Wednesday morning said there is growing indication that Minnesota’s tight Senate race could swing in the GOP’s favor in the November election. 

“There does seem to be a tide within the state that’s working against Democrats,” Kornacki said on the “Today” show.

The Democratic nominee, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, has faced criticism from her Republican opponent, Michele Tafoya, over accusations that she failed to stop a widespread fraud scandal in the state. 

Kornacki noted Republicans have “been trying for decades” to flip the Minnesota seat red.

“What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal there about Medicaid fraud,” he said. “The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor.”

This from Angie Craig, Flanagan's former primary opponent, was devastating: 

A third straight poll shows a tied race in Minnesota between @Michele_Tafoya and Peggy Flanagan. Turns out giving fraudsters billions in taxpayer dollars isn't popular. Here's two minutes of Democrat Angie Craig calling out Peggy Flanagan for her role in the fraud scheme👇 https://t.co/4LxZBufp6G

— Sarah Gallagher (@sgallz_) September 30, 2026

And the polling has been off, folks. It’ll be off by at least two, maybe up to four points, so be wary here. So, we’re flying blind because this industry has lost the plot. The media were all blue wave three weeks ago, and now they’re hedging their bets after numerous pollsters dropped deep skepticism in the models and polls being dropped out there. This isn’t new in the Trump era. 

CNN: Republicans outperform senate polls in Trump states by an average of 4.1 points If that pattern continues: Ohio: 🔵 Dem +4 -> 🔴 GOP +0.1 Michigan: 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔴 GOP +1 Alaska: 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔴 GOP +1 Texas: 🔵 Dem +3 -> 🔴 GOP +1 Iowa: 🔵 Dem +1 -> 🔴 GOP +3 https://t.co/lkSYEQMnqn

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) October 21, 2026

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