We’re in the final weeks of the 2026 midterms, and some say a blue wave is coming. That’s just not happening. It won’t be like 2018 — a 25+ seat flip isn’t in the cards. Those days are over. Now, some top pollsters are skeptical of the latest tranche of surveys, including Frank Luntz, who admitted he got 2016 wrong and that Trump supporters don't respond to pollsters.
Now, we have New York Times reporter and Michigan native Jeremy Peters noting that the thing we knew could happen — Jewish Democrats voting Republican — is a real thing in the Detroit suburbs. Peters called this a big deal: these are lifelong Jewish Democrats, and they’re voting Republican for the first time ever. Former Clinton pollster Mark Penn noted that if five percent of Haley Stevens supporters flip, Stevens ran against El-Sayed in the Democrat primary, former Rep. Mike Rogers will likely win. Peters added that the polling is oversampling El-Sayed’s overeducated base, Democrat voters are reluctant to say they’re splitting tickets, and yes, the Trump vote is underestimated:
💥NEW: NYT's Jeremy Peters *WARNS* MS NOW that polls may be missing Dems voting against Abdul El-Sayed💥 Peters asserted numerous Democrats — particularly Jews — plan to vote Republican for the first time. "That's a big deal!" he said. Peters argued it's "really quite striking" how Democrats are so worried about El-Sayed that they'll vote for Trump-aligned Mike Rogers. He added there is significant fear that polling is disproportionately sampling voters with college educations who make up El-Sayed's base. Moreover, Peters reported Democrat voters hesitate to tell pollsters they plan to vote Republican for the first time. El-Sayed also barely won his primary — despite polling projecting a landslide victory. Furthermore, polling has repeatedly underestimated Trump voters. El-Sayed supposedly maintains a slight lead over Rogers, according to the RealClearPolling average. So even a small polling miss could mean El-Sayed loses to Rogers. It appears there's a significant chance of that happening.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 20, 2026
"That's a big deal!" …
Peters argued it's "really quite striking" how Democrats are so worried about El-Sayed that they'll vote for Trump-aligned Mike Rogers.
He added there is significant fear that polling is disproportionately sampling voters with college educations who make up El-Sayed's base.
Moreover, Peters reported Democrat voters hesitate to tell pollsters they plan to vote Republican for the first time.
El-Sayed also barely won his primary — despite polling projecting a landslide victory.
Furthermore, polling has repeatedly underestimated Trump voters.
Steve Kornacki said the same thing about the latest slate of Senate polls on NBC: the Democratic leads are tenuous at best. If the polls underestimate the Trump vote again by 2-3 points, as they have, the GOP could retain control of Congress.
💥NEW: NBC's Steve Kornacki *DUMPS COLD WATER* on The Today Show viewers' hopes of Dems winning Senate💥 Kornacki noted Democrat leads in key Senate races are "tenuous" — and that polling frequently underestimates Trump voters. He asserted Republicans now confidently view polls where Democrats have slight leads as likely GOP victories. Kornacki gave specific examples, such as Ohio and Iowa. Remember the infamous Ann Selzer Iowa 2024 poll? Kornacki particularly highlighted the Kansas Senate race in 2020. He said the Democrat was polling well — but Republican Roger Marshall ultimately smoked her in a landslide. Marshall is now supposedly polling extremely tightly against his Democrat opponent once again. Kornacki also pointed out that even blue states like Michigan and Minnesota appear remarkably close in polling. He reminded viewers that Abdul El-Sayed barely won his primary after polling projected a huge victory. Due to the tightness of these Senate races, underestimating Republican turnout by even a small margin could make all the difference. Frank Luntz also recently warned Trump voters "don't respond" to pollster phone calls and asserted he was "skeptical" that polls were accurate. Nobody is buying the polls anymore. Democrats could be in for a rude awakening in 2 weeks.
— Jason Cohen 🇺🇸 (@JasonJournoDC) October 20, 2026
BRUTAL: Democrat Katy Kay slams Abdual citizen El-Sayed for being too SMUG and ARROGANT. "He comes across as a little smug, a little arrogant, a little too cool for school." https://t.co/bZzODJtRpK
— Democrats For Mike Rogers (@DemsForMike) October 20, 2026
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