We all know the polls have been especially wild this cycle. Some polls oversample or undersample, and there’s also a generic geographic bias, like in the Midwest, where surveys have been off for years. Sure, early voting looks pretty solid for the GOP in some states, but that can’t be used as the gauge here. What we do know is that if GOP support is underestimated by 1-3 points, they retain control of Congress. We also have to worry about fake polls, not biased ones, but surveys that are definitely cooked. I’m sure Nate Silver and other folks don’t plug these into their models, but they still get out there, and mayhem can ensue. There’s a new poll on the New Jersey Senate race, and Fox News’ Bill Melugin made an important announcement about it:
There is no evidence that “Peaceful Public Polling” exists. Zero online footprint. This is not a real poll.
— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) October 15, 2026
Sure, the person who shared it, whose username makes this even more entertaining, is a dead giveaway, but let’s not forget that, in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary this summer, a firm intentionally released a fake poll as a social experiment. The poll said Francesa Hong, a leftist, was ahead by at least 20 points. That was a lie. The firm shut down soon afterward (via WJLA):
A polling firm has closed after releasing fake election surveys for the Los Angeles mayoral race and the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary and admitting that they were for a "social experiment."
Median Strategies, which released polls indicating Los Angeles Democratic Mayor Karen Bass and Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong leading their rivals by wide margins, announced this week that the surveys were a hoax and that it has shut down, Fox News reported.
[…]
In the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, a Median Strategies poll indicated that Hong, a state representative and a DSA member, led Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by 20 points ahead of last week's election. A couple of other public opinion polls also showed that Hong had a large lead.
Crowley ultimately defeated Hong in the primary election by a razor-thin margin.
We’re flying blind into the final stages here. All campaigns can do is not whine, stay focused, sharpen GOTV operations, and adopt a mindset that they’re either tied or down, because there’s no use reading these surveys.
Buckle up!
— Katie Pavlich (@KatiePavlich) October 15, 2026
Listen closely to what he is saying here. Pollsters have been getting Midwest races DEAD WRONG for YEARS, and political strategist Stephen Kent just laid out the receipts. In 60 seconds, Kent exposed how Republicans have been getting underestimated in 93% of Senate polls, which could have HUGE implications heading into the midterms. KENT: “There is no getting around the fact that 93% of Senate polls in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio — going back to 2018 — overstated Democratic support by an average of 6.2 points.” “That is a big, BIG deal.” “Now, Republicans don’t just go into elections assuming that because Democrats are often over counted, which again, in 73% of national races going back the last ten years, Democrats get an edge almost every time in the polling.” “Republicans focus on registering voters, and that’s’s exactly what they’ve done.” “Going into this election, there are more Republicans registered with the party to vote relative to Democrats than any point in the party’s history.” “They are in a very strong position and they’ve been putting in the work.” @bungarsargon
— Overton (@overton_news) October 11, 2026