The New York Times released a new poll displaying startling numbers for the statewide races across Texas, showing that the long-time governor of Texas Greg Abbott is trailing behind his Democrat opponent by three points. If accurate, the poll would represent a massive eight-point swing away from other recent polls.
TEXAS POLL By NYT/Siena (A+)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 3, 2026
SENATE
🟦 James Talarico: 51% (+4)
🟥 Ken Paxton: 45% (-2)
——
GOVERNOR
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49% (+5)
🟥 Greg Abbott (i): 46% (-5)
9/21-30 | LV | (+/- vs June)https://t.co/afRJdaYbvp pic.twitter.com/b8qXSz6TPY
Texas Governor polls (since 9/4)
— VoteHub (@VoteHub) October 3, 2026
9/30 (NYT/Siena): 🔵 Hinojosa +4
9/28 (Beacon/Shaw): 🔴 Abbott +5
9/26 (Big Data Poll): 🔴 Abbott +5
9/24 (Stratus Intel): 🔴 Abbott +5 (R sponsor)
9/22 (Slingshot): 🔴 Abbott +4
9/20 (Marist): 🔵 Hinojosa +3
9/19 (TSU): 🔴 Abbott +4
9/14…
Of course, there seems to be a problem with this shocker. Onlookers have pointed out that the poll is heavily slanted in favor of Democrats in its methodology. The sample, which was only 600 respondents strong, was overpopulated with third-party voters in 2024 and was heavily skewed away from Trump supporters.
New York Times/Siena Texas poll where Greg Abbott trails Gina Hinojosa by 3 points is just Trump +7 on recall in a Trump +14 state and has 13% of 2026 likely voters as 2024 non-major party voters. This almost impossible, of course, in real life. The sample has him losing women.… pic.twitter.com/YrvK7PIobT
— Chris (@chriswithans) October 3, 2026
And would you have ever guessed that the margin-of-error in these polls would be laughably large? For Senate races across the country, the New York Times poll has written in a six to seven point margin-of-error. Coincidentally, they have James Talarico up by six points over Ken Paxton where they claim he will have historic shifts across the state, but under preform in the Democratic Socialist Republic of Austin.
Do you think we could get larger margins of error in this trash?
— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) October 3, 2026
You mean to show me 6 and 7 point leads in TX and AK while still putting both outcomes in the margin of error window?
So it could be Paxton 50-47 and Sullivan 48-45 but who cares? Let’s make up Democrat leads so… pic.twitter.com/GrXcQxDlmW
I don’t pretend to know if Cohn counts the whole media market as these regions but Talarico is apparently underrunning Beto in Austin (by 11) but doing better in rural Texas by 17 and of course winning the largest margin in Houston ever (D+37 shift)
— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 3, 2026
Why bother releasing it lol https://t.co/xZrNLwCmw0 pic.twitter.com/SkjiTCMHuE
If someone honestly thinks that Abbott is going to lose, let alone by three points, I have a couple of nice ocean front properties to sell them.
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