Prediction markets made an interesting shift in the aftermath of the 2026 midterm elections.
Websites like Kalshi and Polymarket cut Vice President JD Vance’s chances of securing the Republican presidential nomination while elevating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
This comes the day after Democrats seized control of the House and Senate in a series of upsets nationwide.
Vance still leads the nomination market at 27 percent, but that price is down eight points, according to Kalshi. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits at 21 percent, down 3 points, and DeSantis is at 19 percent, up 14.6 points. The two-exchange averages tell the same story: Vance at 29 percent, Rubio at about 21 percent and DeSantis at 17 percent, according to DeFi Rate’s nominee tracker, observed Wednesday between 6:38 AM and 10:09 AM ET.
On Polymarket, Vance holds at about 31 percent, Rubio at 19 percent to 21 percent and DeSantis at 11 percent to 16 percent, with DeSantis’s price climbing through the morning, according to PredictMarketCap’s live cross-market tracker.
These numbers represent a significant change. On Sunday, Nov. 1, before a single midterm vote was counted, Vance traded at 35 to 36 cents on Kalshi and 38 to 38.4 cents on Polymarket, Rubio traded at about 20 cents on both exchanges, and DeSantis traded at under five cents on both, according to Scores and Stats.
The repricing started while returns were still coming in. By 11 PM ET on election night, Vance had fallen four points in three hours to 31 percent in Kalshi’s nominee market, while DeSantis jumped nearly 14 points in three hours, from about five percent to 19 percent.
Dems will get 55 Senate seats and 250+ House seats. Looking at the Senate map and considering such a massive House margin, it is very unlikely Republicans will recapture the Congress in 2028. Might not have a shot at Senate control until 2032. https://t.co/40BP6SjOaq
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) November 4, 2026
In the days leading up to the election, DeSantis had aimed some sharp criticism at his own party. During an interview with Stephen A. Smith, he suggested the Iran war was instrumental in the eventual shellacking Republicans took on Tuesday.
He noted that Trump “ran saying he wasn’t going to do a Middle East war” and that “some of our voters who’ve checked out because they’re like, ‘I didn’t want any more Middle East wars, and now we’re doing it.”
Had that been wrapped up in like a week, like Venezuela was very quick, people probably wouldn't have been an issue right now, right? But what's happened is It's kind of an open-ended conflict, and it's having a direct impact on people's finances. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working-class people, and it's higher because of this conflict. That's just a fact. If you can't admit that to voters, then you're gaslighting them, and they're not gonna listen to you on other things.
Governor DeSantis SLAMS Trump for taking us to war in Iran and gaslighting voters! “He obviously ran saying he wasn't going to do a middle east war and they did. So we had some of our voters who've checked out because they're like I didn't want any more middle east wars and now we're doing it And what's happened is it's kind of an open-ended conflict and it's having a direct impact on people's finances. Gas is higher. It hurts people, working class people and it's higher because of this conflict. That's just a fact. If you can't admit that to voters then you're gaslighting them and they're not going to listen to you on other things.”
— Chris Nelson 🏝️🇺🇸 (@ReOpenChris) November 3, 2026
DeSantis also criticized the decision to put Kristi Noem in charge of the Department of Homeland Security, saying it was a mistake.
DeSantis has not ruled out a potential 2028 run, but analysts suggest that’s his next move now that his term as governor is expiring.
It’s worth noting that prediction market prices are constantly shifting and the 2028 election is still two years away. But these early indications could suggest that Vance might not have such an easy time becoming the GOP’s next presidential nominee.