Turnout, turnout, turnout.
The New York Times’ final midterm prediction doesn’t look good for Republicans, as the NYT/Siena poll shows Democrats expecting to sweep every swing-state Senate race. Most other forecasts also paint a grim picture for Republicans’ chances of holding the Senate, while the House appears poised to swing toward Democrats, as the “people’s house” typically swings against the president’s party during midterms.
But Republicans need to remember that polls are not the elections themselves. And while the polling picture favors Democrats, turnout is where Republicans have the opportunity to make these races far closer.
🚨 JUST IN: FINAL NYT polls predict a blue wave on Tuesday Vote in droves to prove them wrong! 🔵 MICHIGAN: Abul El Sayed+11 🔵 TEXAS: James Talarico+7 🔵 MAINE: Troy Jackson+6 🔵 OHIO: Sherrod Brown+5 🔵 KANSAS: Adam Hamilton+5 🔵 ALASKA: Mary Peltola+2 🔵 IOWA: Josh Turek+1 🟦 US Senate: 54D-46R What a bold move from NYT showing MI in double digits. If they are wrong, it's going to be DEVASTATING for their credibility!
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2026
Here’s the NYT final prediction. Let’s prove the legacy press wrong again. Surge. Vote. Win. Commies have no place in America. https://t.co/HgUWTgJGN2
— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) November 2, 2026
The message for Republicans over the last several weeks and heading into the midterms has focused on one thing: turnout. And there’s a good reason for it.
As The Washington Post reported last week, and The New York Times echoed in its latest forecast, Republicans have responded to polls at a far lower rate than Democrats, raising questions about to what extent the results overstate Democrats’ support. The Times specifically reported that Republicans responded 23 percent less often than Democrats did.
Now, that definitely doesn’t mean Republicans are going to sweep the midterms. If Republicans are less likely to respond to polls, that could also mean they’re less likely to turn out, or that they’re simply less enthusiastic about this election than they were in 2024.
🚨 UPDATE: New York Times just warned their blue wave final midterm polls are being flooded by white Democrats, with white Republicans answering **LESS THAN 2020** "The persistence of this kind of nonresponse bias introduces the risk of a systematic polling error like those in 2016 or 2020." "This cycle, Democrats are once again responding to Times/Siena polls at a much higher rate than Republicans. Across these final battleground polls, registered white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to take the poll than registered white Republicans. That’s actually a bit higher than in the final polls in 2020." Show up. Make their worst fears come true.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2026
But that’s exactly why turnout matters so much. If Republicans want to hold on to Congress, they need to get their voters to the polls, not count on the polls being wrong. Being undercounted could mean these races are more competitive than they look. But voters the pollsters missed won’t make a difference unless they cast a ballot.
Bug your friends to vote. Ask whether they’ve actually done it, not just whether they intend to. Get your fellow Republicans out to the polls, and make sure they follow through. Republicans can question the forecasts, but they can’t afford to mistake that skepticism for confidence that the midterms will go their way.
The best way to prove the polls wrong is to win, and that takes turnout. We have two days. Let’s make it count.