Whenever I write about Republican voter registration advantages over Democrats, or Republican voter turnout surpassing Democratic turnout, naysayers always chime in and claim that what is more important is how the Independents vote. But what they’re failing to realize is that Independents generally split right down the middle between Republicans and Democrats, because the vast majority are partisan voters.
Pew Research reported in 2024 that Independents broke evenly, voting 48 percent to 48 percent between the two major parties. Last year, Gallup found that only 10 percent of them are purely independent (and other polls have found they make up as few as five percent), not leaning toward either party. Gallup reported that Independents now make up 45 percent of the electorate, with Republicans and Democrats at about 27 percent each. Over half of Millennials and Gen Z identify as Independents.
Due to the near-even split between parties among Independents, they flip back and forth from election to election. In 2016, Donald Trump won the Independent vote by four points. In 2020, Joe Biden reportedly won them by 13 points. Although Kamala Harris won the Independent vote by a few points over Trump in 2024, Trump led them in several battleground states: Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Recent trends have shown Republicans gaining ground with Independents. Gallup found that Independents leaned more Republican than Democrat from 2022 to 2024. Rasmussen Reports observed a very large double-digit gap in 2022, with 43 percent choosing the GOP candidate and 28 percent the Democrat.
Now, I will grant this: Based on historical data, Independents tend to break against the president’s party during the midterms, so in that sense they could play somewhat of a role in this election. But this doesn’t mean they lean left or lean right; it merely means they flip back and forth. There is no trend showing them moving to either party and staying there.
If Republicans and Democrats focused on getting Independents to vote for their candidates, it could make a difference, but for the most part, they don’t. They focus on getting the vote out from their own parties.
Since Republicans have limited resources, and there are so many Independents, the GOP and Turning Point Action have stuck to registered Republicans where they’re likely to have more luck.
Democrats have focused their efforts on Independents somewhat, but clearly it hasn’t made much of a difference since they continue to split down the middle. Katie Hobbs is running to remain governor of Arizona with deceitful signs that say “Be Independent.” She was ranked one of the 10 most liberal governors in the country.
If both parties diverted their resources to heavily focus on Independents, it could make a difference, but they’re not, because if they decreased their outreach to their own parties, they would lose votes there. The 10 percent of nonpartisan Independents who are swayed by the best talking points in an election could be a factor, but since it is difficult to identify that 10 percent, plus extremely time-consuming since it is such a large group, it’s almost an irrelevant factor. And while Independents were considered the determining factor in some previous elections, there are also multiple elections where they weren’t.
Crafting the best talking points to lure Independents isn’t necessarily a great solution either. Many true Independents aren’t very educated about politics, so they vote based on other criteria, such as how their family instructs them to vote, and which candidate is more charismatic, good-looking, or presents a trustworthy, statesmanlike persona.
Fortunately, Independents don’t look like they are going to break for Democrats this election. Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate pollsters, found in a survey of likely voters released last month that Independents favor GOP candidates by five points over Democrats.
The trend towards more Independent voters has hurt Democrats. They peaked at 36 percent of the electorate in 2008, then declined as Independents rose. In the 36 states where Democrats lost ground, Republicans gained.
If the numbers of Republicans and Democrats who vote are equal, considering 90 percent of Independents are partisan, that means the 10 percent that are truly undecided are the only votes to consider. Over half of that 10 percent would need to break for one party in order to possibly have an effect. And that 10 percent tends not to vote as much as other voters.
I predict that as AI continues advancing, it will get easier for both parties to identify the 10 percent of Independents who are swing voters and target them. Then they will become a force to pay attention to. But until that happens, they are mostly an unknown that doesn’t factor into the equation.