The US Senate races in Election 2026 are essential for maintaining MAGA GOP dominance in Washington. After Election 2024, pundits from across the spectrum are convinced that Republicans can hold the US Senate into 2026 and even 2028.
However, elections are dynamic affairs, and all seemed lost after Election 2022, with all of Trump’s endorsed US Senate candidates going down in flames. Two years later, Trump recaptured his MAGA Mojo. The RNC got its act together, too, and they pulled off an incredible four US Senate seat sweep, cleaning out the remnants of the Democratic class of 2006. We still don’t talk enough about Pennsylvania US Senator Dave McCormick’s incredible upset of the Democratic machine and legacy-politics incumbent Bob Casey!
National Republicans are starting to run their campaign efforts like businessmen who want to close the deal. No more funneling money out of emotion; no more throwing around cheap talking points while wearing a MAGA hat, and calling that sufficient to win over independent voters and woo disaffected Democrats; no more crazy candidates with weird backstories; no more grifters; and no more drama.
So, how is Trump preparing to maintain the Republicans’ US Senate majority this year?
Let’s talk about Kentucky first. This decision was easy for Trump, but hard for the grassroots. Why would President Trump line up behind Congressman Andy Barr? The guy is the most liberal of the three major candidates running to replace traitor Mitch McConnell. MAGA grassroots had been coalescing around Nate Morris since Former AG Daniel Cameron blew his momentum by losing to Governor Andy Beshear in 2023. No matter what the machinations, the unavoidable calculation is that Barr is barreling towards a primary win. With such clear and convincing metrics, the RNC and the NRSC do not want to sink more money into a contentious primary for an easy win in the general.
Time is of the essence, too, not just money. Trump showed immense party boss savvy by praising Barr, then offering Nate Morris a seat in the MAGA cabinet. Barr will have a clear field to the general election and win, without breaking the GOP bank or breaking a sweat. Will Barr turn into another RINO? Consider McCormick of Pennsylvania: he sounded wishy-washy in 2022, but toughened up to win in 2024. Since then, he has become a reliable MAGA vote. And what if Cameron prevails? It’s still a win for us.
The Republicans’ main issues are money and manpower in a tough election year. They can’t afford to spend lots of money on divisive primaries for all but guaranteed seats.
They are fighting to keep Montana and Iowa, too. These seats will stay Republican, but have a lighter shade of red compared to Kentucky. A tougher election year means that Democrats are putting more money into those states. Republicans need to do the same.
Then there are the two swing seats that Republicans need to hold: Maine and North Carolina.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins is liberal, but she is the only R who can get elected in a D state like Maine. She is the last New England Republican in federal office, too, so Trump and team are giving her a lot of grace. Fortunately, Collins just got a major boost when her biggest rival, Governor Janet Mills, suspended her campaign. The Dem nominee is Graham Platner: a creep, a racist, a freak of nature, an unabashed communist based on social media with a Nazi tattoo on his chest. He’s too far out of left field. Collins looks sane and tolerable, so she has a much better chance, and Democrats will abandon the Pine Tree State by September if not sooner.
North Carolina is the only other potential hiccup. So far, the Tar Heel State has staved off turning into Virginia and Maryland, but Democrats are still targeting this state, with some effect. Half the statewide offices have gone Democrat, including the governor and the attorney general. The Democratic US Senate nominee is the popular former Governor Roy Cooper. He unseated an incumbent in 2016, then increased his margin of victory in 2020. However, a Republican got elected to the US Senate during the same election cycles, so Tar Heel voters remain keen on keeping the Republican sheen at the federal level.
Former (successful) RNC Michael Whatley needs lots of time, money, and resources, and Trump and team have made sure that he’s provided for.
Then there’s Texas.
Incumbent US Senator John Cornyn has failed the grassroots, and Trump probably had little to offer to convince him to quit the race. He's going to lose because Paxton deserves to win: a true MAGA warrior who advanced the Trump agenda not just in the Lone Star State, but across the country. However, Election 2026 will be a bigger challenge for him, and Texas is an expensive media market. This US Senate seat will be a dog fight, much like 2018 between US Senator Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke. Cruz prevailed, but he was an incumbent in a tough year. What will happen with an open seat? We need Ken Paxton in the US Senate, and we need to make sure that there's plenty of money to push back on the fake Christian James Talarico.
Let’s not forget that Republicans have a chance to win more seats in 2026, as well.
The best pickup chances are Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire.
Michigan is the best of the three. President Trump has so reshaped the political landscape that the Rust Belt states have turned into reliable swing states for Republicans. Former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost by less than a percentage point in 2024, has McCormick-like momentum. If radical Democrat Abdul El-Sayed wins the Democratic nomination, Rogers is the favorite.
In Georgia, the progressive virus is spreading across the state from Atlanta, but Republicans can regain their advantage, plus a series of corruption indictments against Democratic state legislators could help restore GOP dominance. Incumbent Democrat US Senator Jon Ossof has lots of money and no primary challenge. Republicans are facing a contentious five-candidate primary with three main candidates: Governor Kemp-backed football coach Derek Dooley and two Republican Congressmen, Buddy Carter and Mike Collins. Collins is the media-savvy favorite, but the three major candidates are all Trump-friendly.
Trump has not issued an endorsement yet. Perhaps Trump could bury the hatchet with Governor Kemp, get behind Coach Dooley, then offer the two retiring Congressmen ambassador positions. He needs to avoid a messy GOP runoff, or Ossoff will run away with the win.
As for New Hampshire, the NRSC should celebrate recruiting former US Senator John Sununu to challenge Congressman Chris Pappas. The Sununu name resonates with Granite State voters, and the state is also moving to the right. Even if Pappas wins, national Democrats will have spent a huge amount of time and money to keep the seat.
Add to all of this the ongoing negotiations to bring John Fetterman into the GOP fold, or to get him to support the GOP caucus, and Republicans are on track to not only hold but to expand their majority.
Let's hope for the best, and maybe Trump will be able to defy election precedent, just as he did in 2018!