The mainstream media is attempting to downplay the huge numbers of Republicans casting early ballots this year in battleground states. Usually, Republicans vote heavily on Election Day, while Democrats dominate early voting. The MSM is trying to cover the surge as if both parties are voting in huge numbers instead so as not to demoralize their comrades, the Democrats.
But the reality is Republicans have a far greater ballot-chasing effort going, with broad support from not just the GOP but also Turning Point USA and tireless GOTV activist Scott Pressler. The theme is “too big to rig,” which means turning out so many voters that it overwhelms any election fraud. The early voter turnout is due in large part to the GOP shifting its focus to early voting, afraid of turmoil on Election Day causing disenfranchisement of Republican voters, as happened in Maricopa County in 2022.
One analysis said that Democrats should be voting early at about a 25% greater rate than Republicans, by recent polling from Atlas. However, the poll found that Democrats only outpaced Republicans 32.1% to 29.3% in early in-person voting and 25.7% to 16.9% in mail-in voting.
In a few battleground states, the numbers are even more depressing for Democrats. In Nevada, which has usually been a safe state for Democrats, Republicans are decimating Democratic turnout from 47% to 27%. No Democratic federal candidate has lost statewide there since 2012, and they hold a supermajority in the State Assembly and are only one seat away from a supermajority in the Senate. This year, pundits admit Nevada is a battleground state.
In Arizona, where Donald Trump is ahead in most polls, Republicans are substantially outpacing Democrats in early ballots, 44% to 35%. The general mood in Arizona is Trump has it in the bag and isn’t even focusing as much on the state anymore.
In Georgia, the GOP is ahead with voting 50% to 45% early. Democrats are excitedly pointing to the heavier female turnout in this state, 55% to 45%, but since Republicans are also leading Democrats, the extra female turnout is not likely to favor them. Rural conservative areas are reporting a high turnout, while the urban Democratic regions are not. The state smashed records for early voting, with over 328,000 casting votes on the first day of early voting, more than double the previous record from 2020 of 136,000 votes.
In North Carolina, turnout is about tied, with Democrats at 35% and Republicans at 34%.
Only three battleground states have Democrats doing well. In Michigan, they’re ahead 54% to 36%. In Wisconsin, they’re at 40% to Republicans’ 19%, and in Pennsylvania, 64% to Republicans’ 27%. Election models label Pennsylvania the most important state to win in the country, so Elon Musk has been holding town halls there nonstop. A new report found there has been a 103% increase in Pennsylvania Democratic voters leaving their party.
While Democrats love to warn that independents will swing towards Democrats ominously, it rarely happens. Studies show that independents usually break pretty close to 50/50 between the two parties, and polling this year shows they’re breaking for Trump. A Gallup poll from last month found that independents rated Trump higher than Kamala Harris by two points in favorability and rated Harris higher in unfavorability by a point.
A Gallup poll earlier this month found that 49% of independents lean towards the GOP and 42% towards the Democratic Party. It also found that there are now more Republicans than Democrats nationwide, 31% to 28%.
Trump is leading in most polls and, more importantly, in the average of battleground state polls. This is especially significant, considering that most elections lean to the left. The former owner of the poll aggregator site 538, Nate Silver, who is no conservative, said on Sunday, “The data continues to be pretty negative for Kamala Harris. Three recent high-quality national polls show Donald Trump leading — a difficult circumstance for Harris, given Democrats’ Electoral College disadvantage.”
By Electoral College disadvantage, Silver referred to Harris’s poor polling in the battleground states that decide elections. Republicans have heavily focused their chasing ballot operations on those states. Hillary Clinton ignored Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016, which many believe contributed to her loss despite winning the popular vote against Trump.
In Arizona’s Mohave County, MSNBC reporter Vaughan Hillyard admitted his team could not find a single voter in line to cast early ballots who admitted voting for Harris.
In contrast, polls showed Clinton leading Trump right before the election; Real Clear Politics had her up by an average of 2.1%. Wisconsin's polls were way off; they had Clinton averaging 6.5% ahead. So if the MSM polls show Harris losing, she is likely to lose in bigger numbers than Clinton did.
The 538 site lists states from reddest to bluest. Every battleground state is listed as leaning red, with Arizona being the most drastic, with a 7.6 advantage for Republicans. Some states, like Arizona, have continued increasing their Republican voter advantages since the article came out in 2022. Yet, just like in 2020, Democrats expect people to believe that every single one of these Republican-leaning battleground states is going to vote for Harris.
Despite the numbers coming in revealing how well Republicans are doing in some of the battleground states for early voting — numbers posted at NBC, which obtained them from the Democrat-affiliated data company TargetSmart — the MSM cannot stop running articles like this one titled “Democrats Outpace Republicans in Swing States Early Voting.”
But hey, let them mislead their predominantly Democratic readership; they’ll think it’s not as important to show up and vote since they already have it in the bag.