It’s time to take a hard, objective look at where we stand in this election with about three weeks to go. Some of us are worried, very worried, and that’s not surprising. The regime media is helping the Democrats wage a psychological war to convince us that the vibe and the joy and the brat are overwhelming Trump and that we’re going to lose, and that you might as well sit out the election in your double-wide drinking non-bespoke beers straight from the can instead of voting. Don’t listen to them. That’s not how this is working out. Look, I have made predictions before, and I’ve been both right and wrong, but it seems to me that at this moment, Donald Trump is beating on Kamala Harris like her husband smacking up a flirty date.
See, it’s funny because her husband is just total trash. Enjoy your Kavanaugh Rules, Kamala.
And it’s relevant to this column not only because he’s terrible and she’s terrible for being with him but because of how the total lack of coverage of this scandal outside of the conservative media demonstrates that even with the regime media all-in – can you imagine the coverage if Don, Jr., or some other close Trump associate was accused of slapping around his gal pal? – Kamala Harris just can’t close the deal.
Let’s look at the polls. It’s not that I believe the polls – it’s that I don’t believe the polls when they tell me what I want to hear. Right now, if you look at the polls, they all show an incredibly tight race, probably the most incredibly tight race since 2004, when it was also razor-thin. But here’s the thing about the polls. The polls show Harris and Trump not only very close in the nonexistent national popular vote but even closer in the critical battleground states. Remember, fortunately and to the dismay of communists everywhere, we still base elections on the Founders’ greatest gift outside of the Bill of Rights, the Electoral College, and that’s all that matters.
Anyway, the polls are super close, with Trump doing better than he’s ever done. And what’s important is that Trump has always beaten the polls. In 2016, it was 90% likely, we were told by all the smart people of smartness, that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump. He was way back 5-10 points. And yet he won.
Even in 2020 – no, I don’t feel compelled to say it was a fair election because it certainly wasn’t – Trump was always behind by 4-5 points and, once again, he dramatically over-performed. He was defeated (sic) by the width of one of Joe Biden’s implanted hairs. Trump still massively over-performed compared to the polls. If that holds true again, if the polls are just as off as they were eight years ago and four years ago, Trump is way ahead and will end up treating Kamala like her husband treated his nanny.
Figuratively, of course.
That is unless the pollsters have massively improved since 2020. Now, it is possible that the pollsters have massively improved in the last four years, but try out this thought experiment. What other institution has actually improved in its ability to perform its basic task during the previous four years? Name one element of society that’s actually gotten better at doing its job instead of much, much worse. Add in the fact that the way you contact people to poll is changing – you can’t just call somebody’s landline and expect them to sit there for a half-hour telling you their feelings. I’ve gotten about a dozen poll calls this year, and the best they’ve ever gotten from me is a hang-up – you don’t want to know what I tell them when I’m feeling feisty, but it’s anatomically challenging.
So, to believe the polls showing Harris has a 50-50 chance, you have to believe in massive polling improvement, something for which there is zero evidence. Note also that the polls themselves are wildly divergent. Trump is sometimes five points behind, sometimes two points up. Even the pollsters can’t agree with the pollsters, which is why we use averages. Still, polling is a blunt instrument, but bottom line: The fact that the averages showing Trump and Harris are about tied is good news for Donald Trump.
So, how is Kamala acting? Scared. That tells us something. She went on “60 Minutes” and embarrassed herself even after CBS edited it to help her. She’s demanding another debate. She picked a fight with Ron DeSantis, and that ended poorly. She interrupted Obama’s permanent vacation to pester black men (who are going an unprecedented 20% for Trump) and pried Bill Clinton off his latest tramp to go stump for her. She is so worried about men rejecting them that her minions put out that cringerriffic “real men” ad with ironic femboys cosplaying as males. And she’s going on media outlets like Univision for a teleprompter-assisted town hall, that podcast for skanks, and the radio show with that elderly Stern lady, but notice something? She’s going on outlets that appeal to consistencies she should have already nailed down. None of these are the actions of someone who thinks she’s winning.
Next, let’s talk about the fundamentals, the basic indicators of who usually wins. Are they determinative? No, but they provide a useful perspective. The fundamentals indicate that the incumbent is at a disadvantage when there is unrest internationally or there are tough economic times. Kamala Harris is the incumbent, although she’s trying to run as Aunt Hopey Changey. But she’s not selling the change. In fact, as she told “The View,” she can’t think of a single thing she would change from Joe Biden. That is a mark against her. So is the existence of unrest and conflict in the world, from Ukraine to the Middle East to China. So is the economy, which is doing great for her billionaire buddies but not so hot for normals. And so is the border; the only wall she has built is between herself and the job title “Border Czar.” Of course, the chaos that came with sidelining Joe Biden goes against her. So does the fact that she’s a woman – a lot of those Arab American voters she’s been sucking up to in Michigan by backstabbing Israel might not be so excited about voting for a woman. And men in general detest Kamala, at least in part because of her obnoxious “You go, girl!” vibe. They wouldn’t feel that way if she channeled steely Margaret Thatcher instead of a Chardonnay-addled Dolores Umbridge.
And then there is the question of gaffes, as in who is making them and who isn’t. Let’s start with who isn’t. Donald Trump. Remember in 2016 and 2020 how every day we had a new tweeting outrage that would take us off task to litigate what the President really meant? That’s not happening now. Trump 47 is unbelievably disciplined compared to Trump 45, and his campaign is professional and ruthless. It’s Kamala Harris who’s making a fool of herself. She goes on friendly interviews, and no matter how slow the regime media lobs the softballs, and no matter how much they edit her word salad tossings, she still comes off like a cackling idiot. “There will be no success in ending that war without Ukraine and the U.N. Charter participating in what that success looks like,” she babbled on “60 Minutes.” Elon Musk needs to invent an AI program that can translate her English into English.
And finally, there’s the insider stuff. I’m reluctant to talk about it because insiders typically dwell inside a bubble. They may mean well, and they may be trying to give you their best information, but their perspective is sometimes skewed by where they sit. Yet, in this case, the insiders all seem pretty darn confident. I’m not going to name names because lawyers never break confidentiality, but I had the chance to talk to a number of people who are pretty deep in the know and who you may recognize. They are overwhelmingly positive about Donald Trump’s chances. They believe that Donald Trump is moving ahead and that Kamala Harris’s manifest failings are beginning to take hold and drag her down.
My Pennsylvania folks tell me that the state is nearly in the bag. In general terms, others in the game cite internal polls that show Trump ahead of the public polls. Another insider insists that Trump will win “Handily. He wins every swing state, and maybe New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico.” My source predicts a 3–4-point blowout.
I love hearing that, and while I have a lot of respect for this guy, I am going to make the conscious decision not to believe him. You should not believe him either. It’s not because he’s untrustworthy – he’s not. It’s because we can’t become complacent. This isn’t done by a long shot. You should believe that we have to fight like we’re six points behind, and it’s the fourth down with 99 yards to go. What you should not do is allow yourself to be demoralized by the psyop and think that this game is over. It isn’t. We like our current position. We’re just going to fight like we’re in a bad position and that way we’re going to win this all.
Comrade Kamala must be kept out of the White House, and we need your help to take it back. Join Townhall VIP right now to get access to my extra Wednesday column, the weekly Stream of Kurtiousness videos every Friday, my Unredacted podcast every Monday, my VIP members-only direct email address, and more! Join now! Use promo code FIGHT for 60% off membership.
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