With the first and presumptively most important presidential debate coming up in less than two weeks, many Republicans and conservatives are exultant. Their candidate, Donald Trump, has enjoyed a consistent if small lead in the polls, especially in those that most accurately reflect the true nature of the race – by allowing voters to choose between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, West, and Stein. Trump's advantage hasn't been dented by a wide-ranging campaign of lawfare, up to and including his recent felony convictions in New York City. Many Trumpers expect the first debate to consolidate Trump's dominance – mainly because they take it for granted that Biden's senility will be laid bare. From that point on, they assume, Trump will be on a secure glide path to a second term.
Much of this logic is sound, but the last part – the idea that a poor debate performance by Biden will cement Trump's status as the frontrunner – is dangerously naive. Trump is currently ahead and has been ahead more or less since the campaign began. However, this advantage, if one digs deeply into polling data, does not necessarily reflect any particular strength on Trump's part. His favorable ratings, and the percentage of Americans who say they will vote for him, have not significantly changed from 2020, when he lost by more than four points. At this same point in the race in 2020, in the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head polls, Trump was at around 42% of the vote. Today, he is receiving roughly 45%. That's a significant difference, but hardly an earth-shattering one. Joe Biden, by contrast, was receiving 50% of the vote in 2020, versus less than 45% now. In a five-way race, Biden currently receives under 40% – an extraordinarily weak performance for a sitting president. The lesson here is that Trump's dominance in the race is mostly a factor of Biden's unpopularity and the divided field of candidates.
But why, then, would a flawed debate performance by Joe Biden not serve to improve Trump's prospects of victory still further? That's simple: Trump's chances of victory rely on the assumption that his main opponent is, and will be, Joe Biden. While it would be difficult, and maybe even excruciating, for Democrats to pull the plug on Biden's reelection bid and choose another candidate, it is far from impossible, especially before the nomination has been officially bestowed on Biden at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. A different Democratic candidate, needless to say, would upend the presidential race entirely, and this would threaten Trump's primacy by injecting new blood into the contest. No one can say whether the Democrats could find themselves a dream candidate, however, at the very least they could find one who wasn't burdened by all of Joe Biden's baggage, and who wasn't obliged to defend the status quo, which so many Americans find repugnant.
If, therefore, Trump's likelihood of winning in 2024 depends on Democrats sticking to their guns and following Joe Biden like lemmings over the abyss, then the best way to ensure that they do so is to hope that Biden puts in a performance in the first debate that will be judged...satisfactory. That debate is and will be seen as, the greatest and most important test of Biden's political viability before the Democratic National Convention. If he passes it, he will be the Democrats' nominee. If he trips up modestly, Democrats will probably still be stuck with him. If, however, he crashes and burns, as so many Republicans and conservatives seem to expect he will, and hope he will, then it would be shocking if Democratic Party elders, along with members of the Biden family, did not take Sleepy Joe aside and explain to him that the time to retire gracefully is now. And, in that case, the modest lead that Trump has built – over one of the least popular presidents in modern history – could evaporate overnight.
Elementary political logic dictates that the candidate who is ahead in any race should do everything in his power to ensure that the dynamics that helped to craft his advantage should be left as undisturbed as possible, he should hope that nothing dramatic or even interesting happens in the course of the campaign to change voters' minds. A mediocre debate performance by both candidates on June 27th, or a debate that surprises and excites no one, would be entirely to Trump's advantage. Thus, while it may appear highly ironic, those Americans who sincerely wish for a second Trump term would be well-advised to hope and pray for a reasonably solid debate performance by none other than Joe Biden. Such a result would keep Biden's struggling campaign on life support – but decidedly alive – and that is exactly where Republicans, conservatives, and Trumpers should want it.
Dr. Nicholas L. Waddy is an Associate Professor of History at SUNY Alfred and blogs at: www.waddyisright.com. He appears on the Newsmaker Show on WLEA 1480/106.9.