We are all understandably fixated on presidential elections in the US. And we have the elections in the UK on July 4. But there is another election around the corner that is worth paying attention.
On June 28 the Iranian regime will hold its “election” for a new president. This sudden “election” became necessary since the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, “the butcher of Tehran,” last month.
This is absolutely not an election, and if recent history is any judge, an overwhelming majority of the Iranian people will shun it. Yet, this situation offers an opportunity to refocus the West’s Iran policy. Currently, there is no coherent Iran policy, and if one exists, it is entirely dysfunctional. This makes it a pressing priority.
For a new, sound policy on Iran, Western leaders need only to heed the message from the Iranian opposition rally in Berlin on June 29.
Raisi came to power in 2021 through a tightly controlled “election,” handpicked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over all state matters. This upcoming special election will be similarly engineered, merely providing a democratic facade for Khamenei’s will. It is a sham process that the vast majority of Iranians can see through. The parliamentary election earlier this year saw less than eight percent turnout in the capital Tehran – by the regime’s own admission.
This special election is taking place amidst ongoing high tensions between regime authorities and the Iranian people, more than a year and a half after a massive nationwide uprising. The 2022 uprising posed the greatest challenge to the theocratic dictatorship since its establishment over 43 years ago, bringing the regime to the brink of overthrow.
The uprising and the subsequent crackdown highlighted the cruelty of Iran’s theocratic regime. Before Raisi assumed the presidency, opposition activists warned that his selection was part of consolidating power for an ultra-hardline faction, setting the stage for increasingly brutal crackdowns on dissent. These warnings were realized in September 2022, with indiscriminate shootings, mass arrests, and public beatings led by the regime’s paramilitary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
According to the main opposition People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), at least 750 protesters were killed within weeks of the uprising's start, and over 30,000 were arrested. The crackdown also accelerated the country’s execution rate, a trend that began with Raisi, notorious for his role in the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, which claimed an estimated 30,000 victims, primarily MEK members and supporters.
Western powers must resist the temptation to see this presidential transition as an opportunity to reset relations with the Iranian regime or re-engage in negotiations over the regime’s nuclear program. Neither its nuclear ambitions, support for terrorism, nor human rights abuses will undergo a transformation with a mere change of president. Democratic nations must recognize the need for the regime's overthrow and view the electoral boycott as a sign that the Iranian people are ready to resume their pursuit of this goal.
Ongoing clashes between regime authorities and Iranian activists, led by the MEK’s “Resistance Units,” indicate that anti-regime activism has only intensified despite heavy-handed crackdowns. Western powers must pay attention to the election, its boycott, and its aftermath. Most importantly, they should listen to the recommendations of the Iranian people and the organized resistance to better understand the correct policy on Iran.
This will be particularly easy as thousands of Iranians from across Europe gather in Berlin for a rally organized by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a coalition of pro-democracy opposition groups, including the MEK. Similar events in previous years have drawn up to 100,000 participants, and this year should be no different.
The event will outline specific policies for democratic nations to adopt to isolate the clerical regime and weaken its repressive institutions, such as designating the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization. It will also promote the ten-point plan authored by Maryam Rajavi, designated by the NCRI to serve as transitional president following the mullahs’ overthrow.
The ten-point plan includes free and fair elections, separation of religion from the state, safeguards for the rights of women and minorities, and a commitment to dismantling the regime’s nuclear weapons program while pursuing peaceful relations with neighboring countries.
Democratic governments have a moral obligation to support this plan and help the Iranian people free themselves from the tyranny that has plagued them for four and a half decades. It is the only way to eliminate the regime's malign activities, including nuclear provocations and terrorist threats that have increasingly penetrated deeper into European territory.