A year can be a long time in politics. Many things could disrupt our current “vision” of what will occur in November 2024. We are still eleven months from the election, and how things appear “now” can, and almost surely will, vary. Remember October, 2022. We were expecting a “red wave,” which didn’t materialize. And we were just a month away from that election. A year can be an eternity in politics.
I’m in Thailand, as most of you know, so I look at the American “forest” and not so much at the “trees.” That can be good and bad. Regardless, from here, it currently appears next year’s Presidential election will be another showdown between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Of course, there is nothing certain about that, but that’s the present image I see. Let’s analyze a little.
1. Trump is dominating the media. I read a lot of stuff, and Trump is overwhelming it. Even most of the conservative websites seem to be lining up behind him. Except during debates, I almost have to search to find some information about DeSantis or another candidate, but Trump is always front-page news. Unless that changes, he will be the nominee for no reason other than sheer name recognition. However...caveats below.
I have deliberately resisted “endorsing” any candidate to this point. Big decisions—like who one supports to be President—should not be taken lightly and deserve careful consideration. But with the first primary a month away, I now favor Ron DeSantis as my desired candidate for Republican nominee and eventual President.
I prefer Mr. DeSantis not because I am anti-Trump or a “Never Trumper.” I supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 and have written many articles praising his accomplishments. I’m not supporting DeSantis because I think Trump is a jerk or will be a “dictator”; the latter thought is ridiculous. My preferred choice is DeSantis because I think he is the better man, more solidly conservative, and has a proven record of conservative accomplishments as governor of Florida. He destroyed Gavin Newsom and his Republican opponents in his last two debates. He is intelligent, perceptive, and—not an insignificant point—I strongly believe he can win the Presidency next November. I have never bought it because I have never seen in DeSantis the claim that he is some kind of “Jeb Bush” Republican. DeSantis isn’t perfect; no one on this side of heaven is. But I think he is our best candidate and the most likely to defeat the Democrats next November.
Having said that, it still looks—from Thailand—like Mr. Trump has the inside track to the nomination. Iowa will be the key. If Trump wins big there, the race is over, and we all should get behind him. If DeSantis wins Iowa, he will probably win the nomination because more people will start looking at him. And more Republicans and many (especially anti-Trump Independents) will like what they see. Iowa will be decisive.
However, I will absolutely support Donald Trump, as I did in 2016 and 2020, if he is the nominee next year. That is beyond question.
But, please, Mr. Trump, do not select Nikki Haley as your VP or a BLM member.
2. Biden seems certain to be the Democratic Party nominee. Several months ago, I wrote a column saying that, based on history, Biden would receive his party’s nomination next year, regardless of age, stupidity, or any rational consideration. A sitting President has not been replaced by his party as nominee for almost 150 years. Parties don’t do that anymore. It looks bad.
But then, a few months later, I succumbed to the media hype and prognosticated the Dems would dump Biden for somebody else. I should have stuck with history. I know better. It seems increasingly likely that, unless some currently unforeseen catastrophe intervenes, Joe will indeed be the Democratic Party nominee. Here are some reasons.
It’s too late to mount a strong primary challenge against him. Nobody is making a move except some unknown Congressman whose name I can’t remember. There is no substantive challenge to Biden. Democrats are getting in the queue behind him.
Two, the Democrats will not replace him during their convention. That doesn’t happen anymore, either. I don’t know the last time—if ever—a political party changed candidates during their summer pre-election convention. That REALLY looks bad. It looks incompetent, indecisive, and irresolute. Democrats won’t do that. They also won’t drop Kamala from the ticket. Dumping a sitting Vice-President doesn’t happen anymore, either, for precisely the same reasons.
Third, there are a few Democrats who can think for themselves (use one or two fingers to count them), and they still express concern over Biden’s age, senility, buffoonery, utter incompetence, and totally failed Presidency. But—from Thailand—I read more and more Democrats beginning to defend Biden’s record, even economically. They gave him ALL the credit for the recent release of hostages by Hamas, which I imagine he had absolutely nothing to do with. My point is that the Democrats are already going into campaign mode and touting Biden’s (non-existent) accomplishments. They see him as their nominee. The 99.99+ percent of Democratic Party members in America who cannot think for themselves will support their party’s nominee. Given that the alternative appears to be Donald Trump, this is actually a no-brainer for Democrats. They will NOT vote for Trump any more than you would vote for Biden.
So, right now, from Thailand—subject to amendment, of course—it’s Trump vs. Biden next year. One wishes America could do better, but that is where the country is now. There is, currently, no indication it will progress out of this mindset. Not until a serious disaster occurs.
Check my substack mklewis929.substack.com for recent articles and podcasts. Lots more on the Founding Fathers there. Follow me on Twitter: @thailandmkl. Read my Western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma, all available on Amazon. And God Bless America!