Have you seen the polls? Everyone beats Joe Biden in next year’s election, even you! OK, maybe not you, but everyone else does. That means Republicans will reclaim the White House, and everything will be great again, right? Not so fast. The weird thing about elections is you actually have to have them before you can determine their outcome. I know it’s unfortunate and quite the pain, but those are the rules.
Never spike the football on the 5-yard line, as the saying goes. Sadly and hilariously, history is riddled with people who did just that. The most famous non-football spiking was by the Chicago Daily Tribune in 1948 with their “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline. Deadlines can really put pressure on people to get things done more than to get things right.
But the 2024 election has no deadline, at least not yet. It won’t happen until next November 5th, no matter how excited about or fearful over it anyone gets. That means all the polling in the world matters as much as what you had for dinner last night does regarding its outcome.
That’s why the latest round of polling showing President Joe Biden losing to everyone means exactly nothing right now.
You and I would poll higher than Joe Biden right now; he’s a horrible candidate and person. But here’s something you must remember: he was a horrible candidate and person when he ran in 2020, too. He won, then.
Polling a year out doesn’t matter, especially when there’s a better-than-average chance one candidate, in this case, the incumbent, isn’t be in the picture come election time. Joe Biden is a person, not a concept. If and when he drops out, it’s a whole new ballgame.
Right now, the Republican lead is the political equivalent of the Vegas oddsmakers naming your team a 7-point favorite – it doesn’t mean anything because the game hasn’t even started. Remember what the Jets fans thought their season would be like with Aaron Rogers at quarterback? How did that work out after the 4th play of the season?
If Biden drops out, it’s a new game. Even if he doesn’t, it’s still a year away. What won’t change in that year?
I love an old joke: "If you want to make God laugh, make a plan.” Republicans who plan on the 2024 election being a cakewalk or a coronation are going to be in for a rude awakening. Nothing is certain, or even close to it, in politics.
It was pretty obvious that Barack Obama would win in 2008, but you never really knew for sure, or by how much, until election day. When I voted against Hillary Clinton in 2016, I did so for the express purpose of being able to tell my then yet-to-be-born first child that I did all I could, all the way down to make a point to go to the polls and vote against her in the deep blue state of Maryland, to oppose her ascension to the presidency. No one was more surprised by the results in 2016 than I was, except maybe Donald Trump (though he’d never admit it).
The point is, no matter what you think will happen, there’s no guarantee it will. If you’re voting for a candidate because you think they’re better positioned to win or deserve it, don’t. I don’t care who you’re planning on voting for; you get one bite at the apple, and if you don’t use it on the candidate you think would actually be the best choice to be the next President, then it’s on you.
The truth is, all of them could win easily. And every single one of them could lose even more easily. Even against Joe Biden. Seriously. No matter how unlikely it is that he’ll be the nominee.
We’re polled to death, and they mean absolutely nothing. Stop paying attention to them, stop lurching along like sheep and voting because of them and vote for who you think is best, no matter who that is.
A lot of things can and will happen between now and next November, it’d take a special kind of stupid to think what will happen then can be predicted with any more accuracy than a coin flip now, or even the day before people vote. Stop paying attention to the polls and start listening to the candidates, they’re the ones who will ultimately have to make the case for themselves. If they can’t do that, it doesn’t matter which one of them is chosen or who they eventually run against.
Derek Hunter is the host of a free daily podcast (subscribe!) and author of the book, Outrage, INC., which exposes how liberals use fear and hatred to manipulate the masses, and host of the weekly “Week in F*cking Review” podcast where the news is spoken about the way it deserves to be. Follow him on Twitter at @DerekAHunter.