I am (was) a historian by trade, and historians like to think that, by knowing history, we have some special insight into what may happen in the future. Uh, not so much. Some of the least insightful people I have ever met have been historians, my professors, and my peers (Michael Beschloss, anyone?). I can, however, give you a couple of historical truisms that are almost absolutes (neither are original to me).
Truism #1. “History teaches us that man learns nothing from history” (Hegel). Pretty close to 100% true. It spawns a corollary that IS 100% true.
Corollary to Truism #1. Modern Democrats learn nothing good from history. They learn all the evil, but none of the good. One word: socialism. I rest my case.
Truism #2. This one is the title of a song from the great—blind—country music singer of a generation ago, Ronnie Milsap: “I’ve Got 20/20 Vision, But Only Looking Back.” Good historians (both of them) can tell you what has happened but are as clueless as you as to what will happen. Because nobody knows the future. That might be Truism #3.
With those morsels of brilliance in mind, regarding the upcoming midterm elections next month, I can offer only the following suggestions, most of which you already know.
1. The Democrats will try some kind of “October Surprise”, or, as in 2020, an “October Cover-Up.” They’ve already started. The attack on Herschel Walker. The total blackout of Tony Bobulinski’s damning evidence regarding the Bidens was reported by Tucker Carlson a few days ago. They are hardly finished yet. I thought they would do something with the January 6 Committee, but that hasn’t appeared—so far. Regardless, this one wasn’t hard to predict. You know it’s coming. The question is, do the Republicans. Probably not.
2. The Democrats will cheat as much as possible, try to steal as many elections as possible, and shout “voter fraud by the Republicans!” I hope the Republicans have finally caught on to that and have a defense planned against it. The Democrats will stand on Mount Everest and scream at the top of their lungs that “Republicans are trying to steal elections!", which is prima facie evidence that the Democrats are the ones who will be attempting to do it. Point at somebody else and shout “thief!” while you are stealing another person’s wallet. The Dems are masters at it, and the Republicans are generally clueless.
3. The Mitch factor. Mitch McConnell is a strange duck. We must give him some credit. He kept Merrick Garland off the Supreme Court and put three great justices there. That ain’t hay, folks. But Mitch, unfortunately, is a Dave Kingman, a guy who hits a home run every 40 times at bat or so, but miserably strikes out or grounds into a double play the rest of the time. And has no clue how to play defense. McConnell is a weak man in an era that calls for strength, a useful idiot, too often letting the Washington winds blow him whichever way they wish, and he folds or hides. Mitch, in his bone of bones, is a Never-Trump establishment Republican who wants to hold on to whatever little fiefdom the Democrats will allow him to have. He needs to be supporting Republican candidates everywhere (no, he needs to retire) whether they perfectly suit his taste or not. But he isn’t doing that. It could cost Republicans the Senate majority because most of those races are tight. The Mitch factor might be decisive in some places. That’s impossible to measure, though, which is what every politician counts on. How do you quantify incompetence?
As hard as it is for you and me to believe, almost 40% of Americans say they approve of the job Joe Biden is doing. I have no idea what they are looking at. Crime? Education? Inflation? Gas prices? Child mutilation? The border? Foreign affairs? What do this 40% think Biden has done right? Do that many Americans hate their country?
I guess, to some Americans, the right to abort a baby and mutilate children trumps everything else, especially if your name is Newsom. They would rather see their fellow Americans killing each other in the streets and suffering economic woe than give up their Holy Grail (abortion), their sexual promiscuity, and their selfish licentiousness. Biden and the Democrats will certainly never encourage these people (because they vote Democrat) to please try to practice a little self-control and virtue. That may make up a large part of the 40%. Only people who own guns and never kill anybody are supposed to practice self-control (by giving up their guns). So, people who never hurt anybody are to be virtuous, people who murder babies and mutilate children can enjoy whatever promiscuity they please to their heart’s content.
That is what the Democratic Party offers in 2022. And it sells. That’s just realipolitik. 40% is not a small piece of the pie.
And that 40% is a major reason why I will make no predictions about what will happen next month.
It DOES look good for Republicans. The mid-term elections. The economy, etc., etc.
But…the 40%. The lying, cheating Democrats. The Mitch factor. The Stupid Party.
I’ve got 20/20 vision, but only looking back. Ask me in December.
Mark Lewis is a native Texan currently living in Thailand. His first book, Whitewater, a western novel, is available at Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and Eliva.com. His second book, River Bend, will be out soon. And check out his new blog at thailandlewis.blogspot.com.