In a May 24 tweet Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged Palestinians to “purify the Holy Land from the contamination of the usurpers.” The following day, Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that Iran is “enriching at 60%...only countries making bombs are reaching that level.” Both statements are screaming testimony to Iran’s intentions. Nonetheless, Biden administration officials are working very hard to re-join the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), a deal which supposedly limited Iran’s race to nuclear weapons while simultaneously both releasing tons of money to Iran and eliminating harsh economic sanctions. Where is the sanity in the current effort? The first deal was terrible; Iran lied on its nuclear history, which predicated the agreement, made inspections difficult, and obtained know-how and materials which clearly belied their intentions. Why expect any better now? A new deal is nothing less than nuclear madness.
Although Iran has been on the U.S. list of terror-sponsoring states since early 1984, the original deal itself was limited to Iran’s nuclear activity, ignoring Iranian human rights violations as well as the violent activities of Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. It also ignored Iran’s ballistic missile development and had a sunset clause which freed Iran from uranium enrichment and reprocessing restrictions after 10-15 years.
And any cock-eyed optimist’s hopes for the original deal would have been crushed if he had been watching, as I did, Iran’s Supreme Leader. Shortly preceding completion of the JCPOA, Khamenei gave a speech to tens of thousands, stating “President Obama has lied, as have previous American presidents, and will future ones alike….,” his words regularly interrupted by vigorous chants of “Death to America, Death to Israel….” Khamenei made no move to stop such chanting. Indeed, in recent years Iran has installed doormats displaying the U.S. and Israeli flags on many schools so students can wipe their feet on them.
The inspections regime of the first deal was weak in innumerable ways—limited and/or delayed access to many facilities and no access to other relevant ones. It also had relatively short expiration periods. In 2016 two German intelligence agencies discovered that Iran had been clandestinely shopping for illicit nuclear technology. In July, 2019, U.S. Ambassador Jackie Wilcott, in a speech to the IAEA, urged that “Iran must address why it secretly retained an archive of materials from its past nuclear weapons program well after the conclusion of the nuclear deal.” And in 2020 the IAEA chair stated that “for two years there have been traces of nuclear materials. What they have been telling us from a technical point of view does not add up.” Neither did the many visits to Iran from North Korea’s top nuclear scientists.
Producing a deliverable nuclear weapon is at least a four stage process: A. obtain raw materials (uranium/plutonium) B. enrich them to high levels (this requires centrifuges) C. weaponize the product D. acquire a delivery system (usually ballistic missiles). Iran’s missile program, aided by Russia and North Korea, has proceeded by leaps and bounds, with some test missiles having ‘Israel must be wiped off the earth’ written in Hebrew on them. All of this, of course, was enabled by the billions of dollars of financial enrichment associated with the first deal.
I have heard innumerable academics and others confidently state that “Iran would never launch a nuclear attack on the United States.” While that claim has some logic, it is merely conjecture, not a guarantee. Iran would lose any war with us, nuclear or conventional, so it would be irrational to start one. But Hitler’s invasion of Russia, contrary to his generals’ advice, was also irrational. So was Japan’s bombing of Pearl Harbor, given the mismatch in forces which some senior Japanese leaders recognized. The irrational can indeed happen.
Even more frightening, if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will get one as well. No doubt Turkey and Egypt will feel forced to develop their own more lethal weapons, probably chemical and biological.
And perhaps most critically, with such proliferation, how long will it be before terrorists get their hands on them, particularly in the face of dubious Middle East security controls and the emotional influence of radical Islam? Recall the laughing face of Osama bin Laden when notified that the Twin Towers went down. There are many would-be bin Laden’s out there who would like to completely destroy a New York City or Washington D.C. Finally, the added revenues accruing to Iran from a new deal will fund increased terrorism as well.
Both our government and Americans in general tend to be very legalistic; the Iranians are very opportunistic. Under the likely agreement, this Iranian regime will twist and maneuver as it proceeds to its goal, just as it did earlier. And just as Chamberlain’s optimistic 1938 Munich agreement failed, so too will this one. Of course, if one wants a world with more nuclear weapons in the hands of more players, this is a great deal. And if one wants more funds flowing to Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Hamas, this again is the right deal. But these are insane notions. Unless all the original JCPOA shortcomings are fixed, the world will rue the day this agreement is renewed.
Donald L. Losman, PhD, worked 37 years in the national security community and several years ago retired from George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.