Well, world leaders finally wrapped up their conference to save the world via a plan that caps global temperatures to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial revolution levels. The plan essentially demands developed nations to slow down their economies in order to emit less greenhouse gases. As a form of compensation, they would pay developing nations $100.0 billion annually to limit their own economic progress. I am not sure if China is considered a developed or developing nation; apparently, it has pledged economic aid and to one day curb its emissions output.
Watching these ‘leaders’ congratulate themselves, as the world’s economy teeters on disaster, was hard to believe or digest.
This week, it’s all about the Federal Reserve and the first rate hike in almost ten years. Looking back in history, the first rate hike after a rate-cutting cycle, has been followed by major rallies. However, the market has always been lower before such hikes, in part to the moves being telegraphed.
More recently, the market has been higher one year after change and much higher the second year.
First Hike |
One Year Change |
Two Year Change |
June 30, 2004 |
+4.5 |
+11.4 |
June 30, 1999 |
+6.0 |
-9.9 |
March 25, 1997 |
+26.7 |
+48.0 |
February 4, 1994 |
+6.9 |
+42.1 |
There is no doubt, because of how long it has been without a hike rate, and suspicions around the motivations of the Fed, that this time, we could see more near-term volatility than normal.