Will they or won’t they? Can they or can’t they?
Those two questions seem to be the overriding theme of the day, and whichever query that you think can be answered the easiest will probably determine where you should put your money over the next several months.
First and foremost, let’s understand that the word “investment” has simply become another word for “gambling.”
Historically, an investment was made after a well-researched effort had been performed by the investor.
If the choice was a purchase of common stock, the decision was usually based upon company management, product, free cash-flow, future potential, and current capitalization, among other factors. If it was a decision to acquire bonds, that reasoning centered around the level of interest rates, the ability to pay, and the length of time, just to name a few considerations.
Real estate, art, jewelry, antiques; all had their own little idiosyncrasies that had to be determined before the investment was made.
After all, an investment was to be made and held for a very long period of time, and in most instances, it should be working for your benefit, not against you, while you’re sleeping. In most cases, investments were never meant to be fretted over on a daily basis.
However, with the advent of high-frequency trading, algorithmic designs, 24-hour news service, and a host of other nanosecond events, the term “investor” has now been categorically supplanted with the term “gambler.”
Therefore, why not get smart and forego the stock market as your surreal Vegas playground and actually turn to Vegas itself if you want to “invest.” The first thing you’ll realize is that the information given by the Vegas “sportsbook guys” has a higher percentage accuracy rate than the stock analysts that give information regarding corporate earnings.
The correctness of stock analysts is perhaps the worst and was never designed to serve the general public, but only to tout the corporations themselves, whereas the Vegas guys get paid for accuracy. Now, let’s examine the players.
Would you rather have your financial future based upon John Boehner and Harry Reid and their ability to avoid the “fiscal cliff” (“will they or won’t they?”) or should you base your future on Peyton Manning and Tom Brady being able to win another Super Bowl (“can they or can’t they?”). As long as investing has become a game, I’ll take Vegas, Manning, and Brady and you can have Washington, D.C., Boehner, and Reid.
The odds of winning are much more in my favor, so good luck because you’ll definitely need it.