In the past couple of weeks, I’ve been a bit out of my normal rhythm. I spent some time away celebrating a significant milestone, only to return last week to an abundance of work crammed into the shortened week before the holiday weekend.
However, something on social media caught my eye, and it reminded me that we’ve arrived.
The primary season is here.
You know that people are touting for their preferred candidates from all the endorsements. And since I have a microphone, a TV camera, and a keyboard, all the candidates have wanted me to know why they think they are left standing.
Nikki Haley’s team has mastered the art of texting me 78 times per day. Ron DeSantis zero texts, but quickly proffers current office holders and former Trump supporters’ endorsements as soon as they happen. Ramaswamy’s strategy to be the Trumpiest non-Trump in the race has sort of fallen apart (and his numbers reflect it.) And the disgraceful former Governor of New Jersey is still banking on down-splaining to the base why they’re wrong, and he’s right is going about as well as you’d think it would.
The silliest part of it is that none of it matters because none of them will be the nominee and likely won’t even be on the ticket, in the cabinet, or even on the shortlist.
The media really tried hard to make their candidacies “a thing.” Radio and Television networks did contests to give away seats at the debates—the lowest watched in modern history.
Basically, everyone who wished it has tried everything they could wish for, and the result has had one outcome: Donald Trump has a bigger lead.
A TV network programming director asked me this week to rank the top ten news stories of the year, and then he asked me if I felt the POTUS debates were among them.
I resolutely shot back, “nope.”
“Unless you consider the fact that the man who won them all never participated.”
And the truth is—everyone knows it.
This weekend, President Trump was invited to step onto the football field in South Carolina, and the place went nuts. An Instagrammer posting about it simply labeled their footage “SC loves Trump.”
But Trump had a similar moment in Iowa in New Hampshire, and he gobsmacked the DeSantis team with his reception in Florida.
So here’s how this is going to go.
Trump will win the Iowa caucuses on 1/15. This will likely dismantle the “Ron DeSantis as Ted Cruz” narrative for this cycle.
On 1/23, President Trump will win New Hampshire. This will mercifully put down the Chris Christie “campaign.” But with two wins in a row, it will put pressure on Haley and DeSantis. Look for one (DeSantis) to endorse the other (Haley.) The thinking here is that South Carolina is where Trump can be stopped.
But they forgot about 2/3 where Trump will win Nevada. Then, on 2/24, Trump will score a smashing win in South Carolina — a couple of weeks before Super Tuesday.
If Trump goes 4-0 out of the gate—and every bit of data I can find seems to point to it- then he is the nominee for all practical purposes.
This is a good thing—for a few reasons.
The Democrats have really messed up their primary schedule, where they would benefit from the media interest in holding their primaries on the same days as the Republicans they have chosen because of internal bickering not to do so. This only aids Biden as challengers have no larger scrum to draw attention from.
They also have the low energy, low performing, least liked incumbent in the modern era.
When the field is cleared the Republicans can systematically begin laying out the general campaign narrative and driving it home. Define the economy, define the national security threats, and define the migration crises that the voters already intuitively feel.
Basically, the battle to win the middle gets a jump start for the man who can already claim with credibility that he fixed it once—now “give him a chance to fix it for good.”
Yes, by Super Tuesday, it won’t matter what the Steve’s (Deace & Cortes), Jenna Ellis, Congressional reps, or even the Governor of Iowa have to say.
Trump will be the nominee quickly.
That’s good because that’s when the real work is just beginning.
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