When strategists on both sides look at the 2026 Senate map, the state at the top of the list of those most likely to switch parties is North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring and former Democrat Gov. Roy Cooper has a significant lead in the race to replace him.
In the RealClearPolitics average of polls at this moment, Cooper has a 9-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, a former chairman of the state GOP. Cooper has been in front for the entire race; going back to March, his solid and steady lead has never been smaller than 6.5 points or larger than the current 9 points.
A recent poll done for the American Association of Retired Persons by Tony Fabrizio — best known as President Donald Trump's pollster — and Democratic pollster John Anzalone suggests Republicans are in even more trouble than it earlier appeared. Cooper has an 11-point lead, 53 percent to 42 percent, in the new survey.
Why? Much of the answer lies in fundamentals. For example, a president's job approval rating has long been a strong predictor of midterm results, and in North Carolina, Trump is deeply underwater, with a 38 percent job approval rating and a 59 percent disapproval rating. It's a disappointing situation for a president who won North Carolina three times, each time with a slightly larger percentage of the vote and a larger raw vote total. In 2016, Trump won North Carolina with 49.83 percent of the vote and 2,362,631 votes. In 2020, the numbers were 49.93 percent and 2,758,775 votes. In 2024, it was 50.86 percent and 2,898,423 votes.
Since taking office, though, Trump's job approval has fallen steadily. In a series of Elon University polls, Trump's approval was 45 percent in February 2025. It fell to 42 percent in March, 41 percent in April, 39 percent in September, 35 percent in March 2026 and 31 percent this month — even lower than the AARP poll.
The reasons are the usual. The cost of living is the voters' top issue, and they especially blame Trump for the increase in gas and diesel prices that occurred after the start of the Iran War seven months ago. Just as they do nationwide, a majority of voters now say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the cost of living.
On Iran, just 31 percent of respondents in the Elon University poll said they support the war, versus 52 percent who oppose and 18 percent who said they were unsure. Only 60 percent of Republicans support the war, while just 10 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of independents support it.
Add to all this the fact that Cooper, who has won six statewide elections, is far better known than Whatley, who has not won any. Cooper also has significantly higher favorable numbers. At the start of the campaign, a lot of North Carolinians had no idea who Whatley was, and since then, attacks from Democrats have helped keep his favorable rating low.
The current situation could send long-term trends in North Carolina in a new direction. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008 (Kay Hagan, who served one term), and only two since 1998 (Hagan and John Edwards, who also served one term).
Now, when Republicans and Democrats consider the balance of the Senate, North Carolina is the first of the net four seats Democrats would need to win to take control of the Senate. Political analyst Charlie Cook recently said, "A year ago, it wasn't realistic to think that the Senate might flip, but now, it's very realistic." North Carolina, he said, is the "open seat [that] goes first."
Still, the future of the Senate remains very much in doubt (as opposed to the House, which seems set to turn Democratic). Yes, there are several states that could flip from Republicans to Democrats. After North Carolina, there are Maine, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Kansas. But there are also states — Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire — where Democrats are at risk of losing one of their current seats. Winning control is still not a done deal, or an easy task, for Democrats. But there will undoubtedly be some states, most clearly North Carolina, that are in for big changes.
This content originally appeared on the Washington Examiner at washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/4746463/senate-seat-most-likely-flip-2026-elections/.
Byron York is chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner. Email him at byork@washingtonexaminer.com. For a deeper dive into many of the topics Byron covers, listen to his podcast, The Byron York Show, available on the Ricochet Audio Network at ricochet.com/series/byron-york-show and everywhere else podcasts are found.