What if the development of artificial intelligence, and its integration into the economy, could become another answer to mass migration? That was the argument Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, made yesterday. 

The basic logic is straightforward: Mass migration is largely driven by economic incentives, because the United States is wealthier than migrants’ home countries. Once they arrive, many migrants depend on low-skilled work to make ends meet. If AI and robotics eventually take over more low-skilled jobs, on farms, in construction, food service, eldercare, cleaning and other labor-intensive industries, the economic incentive to come to the United States is diminished. The same forces now reshaping the labor market may, in other words, reduce the demand for an ever-larger imported workforce.

"The Right needs to understand that rapid progress in AI and robotics will significantly undermine the incentives for mass migration," Rufo wrote on X. "Accelerate robots, decelerate migration. Mutually reinforcing system."

Rufo went on to argue that President Trump could lock illegal aliens out of the financial system tomorrow, but has not done so because of powerful lobbying interests in industries that rely heavily on migrant labor. Again, if AI and robotics reduce labor demand across those sectors, they would not only weaken those industries’ political leverage but also remove much of the incentive to advocate for mass migration in the first place. If businesses no longer need an endless supply of low-wage labor, the economic case for keeping the border porous begins to collapse with it.

"Trump could lock the undocumented out of the financial system tomorrow—if you don't have paperwork, you suddenly have no bank account, no ability to get on a payroll, no ability to send remittances. But he doesn't do that because agriculture, hotels, construction, personal care, and other industries that rely on illegal labor have powerful lobbies," Rufo said. "If you can get robots skilled up to $15-20/hr labor levels, those incentives shift."

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Like everything else in politics, fixing problems is a game of incentives. That is why those who understand the free market often have an advantage in policy: They do not simply look at what legislation is meant to do; they look at what it incentivizes people to do. 

AI is no different. If automation reduces the demand for low-skilled labor, it also reduces the economic incentive for businesses to lobby for mass migration and for migrants to come primarily in search of those jobs. It will not solve every immigration problem, but it could change the incentives that continue to keep the system broken in the first place.