With five days to go before Wisconsin's primary, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley is arguing the statewide polling is wrong and that he has a chance to beat Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong. Remember, Crowley dropped out of the governor's race on July 9 because his campaign saw no path to victory. He endorsed current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, whose campaign subsequently went down in flames, too. 

Wisconsin Democrats (WisDems) begged Crowley to reenter the race and secured an endorsement from Gov. Tony Evers. The two are now traveling the state to win over voters. Evers got testy when asked about Hong's statements and candidacy, but he did tell the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that Hong would "probably not" beat Tom Tiffany in the general election.

And given what happened in Michigan on Tuesday, where polls said Abdul El-Sayed was going to blow Haley Stevens out of the water and El-Sayed won by about a point, maybe there's a case to be made to not count Crowley out just yet.

The memo says Crowley is surging. Here's some of what it says:

It's clear Democrats have only a matter of days to ensure David Crowley is the Party's candidate to face Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin. Results in Michigan Tuesday night showed polling that failed to appropriately capture and reflect the primary electorate and well overstated the position of the race frontrunner. Democrats are in the driver's seat in Wisconsin to choose David Crowley and have the best fighting chance against Tom Tiffany in November.

Coverage of Wisconsin's primary has centered on topline polling showing Francesca Hong with a wide lead. This memo lays out three facts that complicate that picture, much like the toplines complicated the picture in Michigan Tuesday night. The voter file, published survey crosstabs, and public ad tracking data all show a much closer race than the toplines suggest and that the election will be decided by a different electorate than the one those toplines assume.

David Crowley is very competitive in the primary for governor and Democrats must unite to ensure he is the Democratic nominee.

It points to three things that may change the outcome. It says the electorate voting in the primary is older than the electorate being polled. The memo says that 61 percent of the ballots returned so far are from those who are older than 65, outpacing both the 2018 and 2022 primary, and far ahead of the other age groups: 46 to 65 (24 percent) and 18 to 45 (15 percent). Those last two age groups have remained consistent from 2018, 2022, and 2026.

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The memo also asserts that Crowley's internal polling reflects a tighter race, but that seems hard when you look at the breakdown. On a four-way ballot, Hong is up over Crowley 42 to 24; head-to-head, it's Hong 52, Crowley 33. Among informed four-way ballots, it's Hong 39 and Crowley 29; an informed head-to-head is Hong 47, Crowley 38. The memo points to the 2022 informed electorate to show it's a one-point race with Crowley in the lead, 42 to 41.

"Under every electorate Wisconsin has actually produced in August, the four-way ballot is a single-digit race and the informed head-to-head is even," the memo reads. "If the August 11 electorate looks like the electorates of 2018 and 2022, and the 188,590 ballots already returned say it does, this primary does not have a prohibitive frontrunner. it is a single-digit race in which the group casting most of the votes prefers David Crowley or has not decided, and the Crowley campaign is the only one talking to them."

Many are not optimistic of Crowley's chances.

It's true that this electorate is not 2018 or 2022. Things have changed and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) have been surging in other areas because something they're saying appeals to a segment of voters.

So we need to take this race seriously, after what happened in Michigan.

But, then again, it seems Crowley is a little testy when asked if he's the "establishment" candidate.

It's not a racist slur to call Crowley the establishment choice. The WisDems asked him to get back into the race. Sitting Gov. Tony Evers endorsed Crowley after Evers refused to endorse his current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and his former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.