I'll admit it: I wasn't sure if we would see any presidential debates in the 2024 general election season. My guess was that if Team Biden was feeling fairly confident in their position, they would either accept a single debate against Donald Trump, or none at all. Zero debates would have been somewhat risky for the incumbent, I reasoned, because that outcome would further cement the narrative that Biden isn't up for the job -- which is already a widely-held sentiment across the American electorate. But if his team felt like they were ahead, and they didn't want to risk some costly 'senior moment' under the brightest lights, they might have been inclined to cite Trump's refusal to participate in GOP primary debates this cycle as an excuse to decline to dignify an 'insurrectionist' with a joint forum. Assenting to one lone debate may have been the 'compromise' fallback position, as to avoid entirely nuking a decades-long tradition. It's worth noting that Biden and Trump only debated twice in the pandemic-wracked election season of 2020, as opposed to the usual three.
For all of these reasons, I didn't have a great deal of faith that voters would get an opportunity to see the two major party nominees face-off directly at all this year, let alone more than once. So count me as mildly surprised:
EXCLUSIVE: @realDonaldTrump tells me:
— Brooke Singman (@BrookeSingman) May 15, 2024
“I'm ready to go…The dates that they proposed are fine…Let's see if Joe can make it to the stand-up podium.”
"The proposed June and early September dates are fully acceptable to me. I will provide my own transportation."
That's an awful lot of jump cuts in a very short video, isn't it? In any case, the two candidates have now publicly committed to two debates -- June 27th on CNN in Atlanta (co-moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, reportedly), and September 10th on ABC (details to come). Team Trump is pushing for at least two more (including additional dates in July, August and October), but I suspect the pair of agreed-upon dates will be the extent of it. I'd love to know how this discussion played out within the Biden camp, but here we are. A few thoughts:
(1) I'm convinced that Trump's manic, unhinged, out-of-control performance in the first 2020 debate helped seal his fate, reinforcing many crucial voters' exhaustion with him. Trump will never not be combative, but he would be well served to take everything down a notch or two for these events. Quite a few voters believe their lives were better and the world was safer under Trump, but they need a permission structure to push past their personal discomfort with Trump's behavior and character in order to actually pull the lever for him. These people, who will likely decide the election, seek reassurance. Trump can help deliver that reassurance with his Vice Presidential selection, and by being relatively composed on the debate stage.
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(2) Trump and Republicans often make the mistake of setting expectations extremely low for Biden. Trump is repeating this error with his quote to Singman above, wondering if the president will even be able to physically get to the podium. When conservatives overstate Trump's prowess as a debater, and ridicule Biden as a wholly incapable, dementia-riddled invalid, they play into the incumbent's hands. When he showed up and speed-shouted his way through the first half of the State of the Union, that was framed as a win for Biden, relative to expectations. It is unwise to set up a scenario in which an opponent manages to come off "well" by simply avoiding drooling on himself and falling asleep or muttering nonsense. Most Americans, across the spectrum, do not believe Joe Biden is fit to effectively serve as president for another four-plus years. Convincing them otherwise is a very difficult bar to clear. That should be the standard for a sitting President of the United States who is requesting another term from a disillusioned and hurting electorate.
(3) In the Biden campaign's memo on these developments, they've effectively rejected the structure and organization of the Commission on Presidential Debates. That's why individual networks are hosting the two planned forums this year. The existing system, in place since the 1980s, is effectively dead:
In one morning, President Biden, along with the participation of former President Trump, has essentially ended the Commission on Presidential Debates, a non-profit organization with millions in assets.
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) May 15, 2024
(4) Does Biden green-lighting two debates suggest that in spite of his campaign's leaks to the contrary, they actually are rather nervous about their polling position? After all, it's often the trailing political candidate who clamors for more debates. That may be part of the calculation. But I think this is a smart insight, too:
Biden can’t make the election a referendum on Trump unless Trump is in the spotlight early and often. https://t.co/EmDIKHpJZq
— Amy Walter (@amyewalter) May 15, 2024
They want this election to be anything but a referendum on Biden's presidency, which he would lose. Trump can play into their plan by insisting on being the center of attention and full of drama. A modicum of focus and restraint, including or especially at these debates, would go a long way.
(5) Since I referenced Trump's running mate choice above, does the accelerated debate timeline change the timing of rolling out a VP choice? Traditionally, the debate happen after the conventions, post-formal nominations. The expectation has been that Trump would milk the build-up and speculation about his ticket mate all the way into July, just ahead of the RNC. Does any of that shift, perhaps with consideration given for the pairing to be announced prior to the first of the two debates? I wouldn't bet on it, but it's possible. I'll leave you with this observation:
June 27. First debate. Remember incumbents do badly in first debates. Reagan 80. Bush 92. GWBush 04. Obama 12. Trump 20. So say Biden does badly. It's 7 weeks until the convention....
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) May 15, 2024
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