Forecast For Economic Numbers Week of June 30th, 2014

Peter Morici
|
Posted: Jun 29, 2014 12:01 AM
Forecast For Economic Numbers Week of June 30th, 2014

Forecast For Economic Numbers Week of June 30th, 2014


Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 30

June 30

Pending Home Sale Index - May

99.2

97.8

98.7

Chicago PMI - June

64.0

65.5

64.0

July 1

Auto Sales* - June

16.46M

16.77

16.40

Car Sales

7.87

8.04

Truck Sales

8.59

8.73

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

57.5

57.5

57.0

ISM (Mfg) - June

56.2

55.4

55.6

ISM Prices

60.5

60.0

Construction Spending - May

0.4%

0.2

0.5

July 2

ADP Employment Report - July

215

179

213

Factory Orders - May

-0.2%

0.7

-0.3

Durable Goods Orders

-1.0

0.6

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.7

July 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

220K

217

217

Private

220

216

216

Core Private*

185

147

Manufacturing

10

10

Unemployment

6.3%

6.3

6.3

Average Workweek

34.5Hr

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - May

-$44.7B

-47.2

-45.1

Initial Jobless Claims

312

312

314

ISM Services - June

56.2

56.3

56.2

ISM Prices

61.4

61.4

ISM Business Activity

62.1

62.1

Week of July 7

July 8

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June

96.6

JOLTS - May

4.455

Consumer Credit - May

$18.0

26.8

20.6

July 10

Initial Unemployment Claims

Wholesale Inventories - May

0.6%

1.1

0.8

Wholesale Sales

July 11

Treasury Budget - June

$100.0B

-131.0

Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.