Let’s be honest, some polls about the North Carolina Senate race didn’t look good for Republicans. Former Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is popular and was always going to be a strong opponent, even if Thom Tillis decided not to go rogue and mess up what has become his last term in office. Former RNC chair Michael Whatley is running to fill the seat left by Tillis, but things still look grim. Yet, Public Policy Polling, a Democrat-leaning firm, conducted an interesting survey showing that Whatley was only down by 4 points. Even they admitted that Whatley has a path to win in November. Also, the negative ads showing Cooper being soft on crime, especially with illegal aliens, causing havoc under his tenure, are working (via PPP):
New - Senate poll - North Carolina
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 13, 2026
🔵 Cooper 48%
🔴 Whatley 44%
PPP #B - LV - 7/10
Cooper’s lead is driven in part by a significant name recognition advantage. 92% of voters are familiar with him, compared to 69% who are familiar with Whatley.
Because of that dynamic Democrats are almost completely lined up behind Cooper, while a lot of Republican voters remain undecided.
That gives Whatley much more room for growth. Voters who remain on the fence supported Donald Trump by a 72 point margin in 2024. If they all voted for the same party for Senate in 2026 that they did for President in 2024, Whatley would win 51-49.
Early negative ads in the race have been effective in driving up Cooper’s negatives and keeping the race competitive for the GOP. Where his favorability was 47/40 in March, he’s now barely on positive ground at 47/45.
That's why North Carolina Republicans have been seeking support—they need it, and data backs up the call for reinforcements to the Tar Heel State (via Politico):
North Carolina Republicans have a message for Washington: The cavalry needs to come.
[…]
Republicans believe Whatley still has time to turn around those steep deficits — but only if the national GOP opens its deep pockets sooner than later, according to interviews with nearly a dozen North Carolina Republicans and national strategists.
A massive infusion of cash ahead of the typical late summer and early fall spending spree, they say, would combat Whatley’s biggest problem: a lack of name ID.
In a typical midterm year, the state’s Senate race would be a marquee battle. But the Cooper-Whatley matchup has been drowned out by other more high-profile contests in Texas, Maine and Michigan, leaving some in North Carolina anxious for more money and ways to push the national party publicly further into the fight.
“He has an uphill climb,” said Tuesday Sauer, chair of the Bertie County GOP. “Even though he was the RNC chair, a lot of people who aren’t politically involved really don’t know who Michael Whatley is.”
So far the race has been sleepy, focused on bread-and-butter affordability issues that are defining contests across the country. But the low-key nature of the race is hiding just how critical North Carolina is in November. The state, which President Donald Trump carried three times, is a must-win for Democrats frothing at the possibility of flipping the Senate. And in Cooper, Democrats have found a strong candidate to give them a chance at their first Senate win in the state since 2008, thanks to his status as a household name from a political career spanning four decades.
[…]
Cooper raised $13.8 million to Whatley’s $5 million in the first quarter of the year, and the Democrat entered the second quarter with $18.5 million in cash on hand, while Whatley reported having more than $2.5 million in the bank. Some public polling shows Cooper with as much as a 14-point lead over Whatley.
Yeah, but when a Democrat polling firm says Whatley has a path, and that Cooper’s lead is only four, it should get some attention. Nothing is over until it’s over. To boost his name ID, Whatley recently completed a tour of all 100 counties.
This race isn’t over. It’s still an uphill climb, but they do need more help down there.