A new poll has been released on the state of the Republican primary in the Texas Senate race. President Donald Trump has signaled that an endorsement in the race may be coming soon, and that he would prefer that whoever he doesn’t select drop out from the race.
🚨 BREAKING: Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas US Senate GOP primary by +8 points, 49%-41% — TPOR poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 9, 2026
President Trump has not yet endorsed, and Paxton has NOT dropped out.
Paxton has only indicated he could drop out if Senate GOP leadership strikes a deal to pass… pic.twitter.com/bLzz1rYEP9
New Texas Public Opinion Research poll in TX: Paxton leads runoff, would lead by just 1 point if Trump backs Cornyn, would lead 58-32 if Trump backs him. Most of Wesley Hunt's voters backing Paxton. Paxton's favs w Rs are +30, Cornyn +6
— David Weigel (@daveweigel) March 9, 2026
(781 likely voters, 3/7-8, ±3.9% MOE) pic.twitter.com/ZriBSl2zmb
President Trump on the Texas Senate Republican primary race:
— The American Conservative (@amconmag) March 4, 2026
"I will be making my Endorsement soon, and will be asking the candidate that I don’t Endorse to immediately DROP OUT OF THE RACE! Is that fair?" pic.twitter.com/USRhahI8F2
The poll from Texas Public Opinion Research has shown that Paxton is currently leading incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the race by an eight point margin. Should Trump choose to endorse Cornyn, Paxton would still enjoy a 1 point lead with 13 percent of potential voters still undecided. If Paxton were to receive the endorsement, Cornyn would be in deep trouble, as Paxton would have a 16 point advantage over Cornyn heading into their May 26 electoral bout. The poll claims a margin of error of about four percent.
Paxton has indicated that, per Trump’s suggestion, he would be willing to drop out of the race should the Senate suspend the silent filibuster in order to pass the SAVE America Act, an election integrity bill championed by Trump and the vast majority of Republicans. The race gained national eyeballs once again when Cornyn said that he would be willing to implement the talking filibuster to pass Trump’s legislative agenda in response to Paxton's suggestion of a deal.
Whoever comes out the victor in the heated race will take on the radical James Talarico in the general election in November.