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What the Hell Is Going on in Nevada?

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  October 24, 2024 6:05 AM

 

Nevada’s early voting again showed another solid day for Republicans. It’s remarkable—what the hell is going on in this state? No, we’re not calling anything here. Still, two things that local political observers have been noting here with these totals is that a) this remains an event unseen in the Reid Machine era, and b) Republicans have learned that voting early isn’t so bad. Or, at the very least, they’ve focused on carving out time to get it done beforehand. 

Jon Ralston described yesterday’s totals, saying it’s “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle” regarding the red surge we’re seeing. It’s now reached a point where Democrats should be worried come Election Day, though Ralston also said that he feels that this race will be super tight, though not a shoo-in like in previous cycles. The GOP has done well to chip away at the firewalls in Democratic bastions (via Nevada Independent): 

SOS is reporting today's ballots, and I now feel like I am in the upside-down world. In past cycles, I would be telling you how the Dems were slowly building a firewall in Clark (tens of thousands more ballots than Republicans). They have successfully done this in every presidential election since 2008. 

But the opposite is happening: Thanks to a rural tsunami, the GOP has moved out to a substantial ballot lead:

18,500 ballots, or almost 5 points 

The rural firewall, the R advantage in the 15 smaller counties: 

21,000 ballots, 

The Clark firewall is at 5,000, or just 2.5 points in a place where Dems have a nearly 7 percent registration edge. 

In Washoe, the swing urban county, Rs have a 4 point lead, just above their registration advantage. 

Nearly 400,000 people have cast ballots, or just under 20 percent of registered voters. If turnout is 1.4 million out of the 2 million registered voters, that means almost 30 percent of the vote is in. 

There is no good news in these numbers for Dems, who are basing their hopes on a deluge of mail ballots coming in during the final days and perhaps the day or two after the election (They can be counted for four days after Nov. 5.) and a very favorable split among indies in urban Nevada. 

There are about 100,000 non-major party voters in the mix, or 12 percent of their total – that’s substantially lower than the turnout by both major parties and part of the reason I think we should discount most Nevada polls. No one knows how they will break, although Dems are optimistic because they skew young, as Andy Bloch has pointed out. 

But even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among indies in the current makeup of the electorate, if Trump is holding his base, he is ahead by 6,000 votes or so. Not a lot, but a lead nevertheless. 

[…] 

Clark is turning out at about 3 points under its share of the electorate while Washoe is about 1 point below and the rurals are now 4 points above their share. That explains the GOP lead pretty succinctly. Seems unlikely that will hold as Clark ballots pour in, but we shall see. 

I expect another mail dump late tonight that will help the Dems, but the Rs will still have a big lead when we wake up tomorrow. 

Some exciting stuff is happening out west. Let’s see if it holds.