I will still follow the cardinal rule concerning early vote totals: don’t read too much into them because they hardly indicate when the Election Day vote is tabulated. Still, a lot of people have their eyeballs glued to these numbers. There have been some interesting developments with these voting trends. The Reid Machine era never saw a red surge in early voting in Nevada. It could make for something interesting, but we have a long way to go.
Still, ex-MSNBC analyst Mark Halperin thinks these numbers are strong enough to indicate who could win the 2024 election if they hold:
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that's a big if, we will almost certainly know before Election Day who's going to win the election,” says @MarkHalperin. “If these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like,… pic.twitter.com/xbflN74zAF
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 22, 2024
If these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we'll know that Donald Trump is going to be president.” Early voting data, he says “is more important than the polls right now. It's more important than almost anything, because it's giving us insight into a variety of factors that are counting for a Republican overperformance by various metrics in the early voting in the battleground states.”
“Thing are very tense now,” says @MarkHalperin. “The early vote looks very good for Republicans. Not that they're going to win the early vote, but that the delta is going to be small enough. If it stays on this trajectory, Election Day would be anticlimactic. Democrats are going… pic.twitter.com/fNijXNPTs7
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 23, 2024
Halperin was right about Joe Biden dropping out in the summer. He’s spoken with various pollsters who have not given Kamala the best grades—the private polling has her at risk of losing most of the crucial swing states. With Obama shaming black men, Hillary in Michigan, and this latest fake 'Trump likes Hitler' nonsense from The Atlantic, that nugget is also looking accurate. While this is good news, it’s not the ballgame. These numbers can and will likely change, but they are undoubtedly an exciting development as we head toward our day of judgment.