The assassination attempt will have a “huge impact” on Election Day, according to Republican pollster Frank Luntz.
As a response to countless inquiries about how the incident will shape November’s election, Luntz shared his thoughts in a thread on X.
Trump supporters—now energized—will be motivated to show up on Election Day. The engagement levels between Trump followers and Biden followers turns what was previously a gap into a “chasm,” he said. It will most profoundly impact Pennsylvania voters, since the shooting took place at a rally in Butler.
Voters will remember the iconic photograph of the former president defiantly raising his fist in the air with blood smeared across his face, Luntz noted.
“It's hard to imagine either Biden or any of the potential Democratic candidates delivering full-throated crowd-pleasing attacks on the former President now, taking away most of their ability to play the Trump card by labeling him a ‘threat to democracy’ when he just survived a real threat to democracy,” Luntz commented. “The 2024 presidential election is now Trump’s to lose.”
In recent months, President Trump has benefited from more passionate and engaged followers than the Biden campaign, but the shooting will turn that intensity gap into a chasm.
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) July 14, 2024
That participation gap is worth at least +1% to +2%. And because the shooting happened in…
Trump’s defiant pose, fist in the air as he was being led off the stage bleeding, will be the visual people remember at the polling booth when they think about Election 2024.
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) July 14, 2024
It's hard to imagine either Biden or any of the potential Democratic candidates delivering… pic.twitter.com/PayanEjafq
"I think you're going to see an additional one or two per cent to Trump's vote"
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 14, 2024
Pollster Frank Luntz says the assassination attempt on Donald Trump won't impact who people vote for but will impact "their likelihood of participating" #BBCLauraK https://t.co/viFZGs0OkG pic.twitter.com/VINVxipDAV